تجزیه و تحلیل تولید و قیمت شیر
Abstract
1- Introduction
2-Analysis of milk production
3-Milk supply and milk price
4-Conclusions
References
Abstract
Dairy farming (milk production) is one of the important sectors in agriculture economic in Latvia. After joining the EU the dairy sector in Latvia has changed, small dairy farms could not complete the new technological requirements of milk production and it was the time when in the country the amount of dairy cows was reduced by 9.3% during the two years from 2003 to 2004. During the last ten years farms involved in commercial milk production often had substantial modernization, the farmers are motivated to improve cows keeping and feeding. The smaller number of dairy cows is partly offset by the regular growth of their milk yield. Thereby average milk yield per cow during the ten years has increased by 42% and has reached 6993 kg in 2014. Milk price is depending on the economic and political situation in the world, it is also influenced by the geographic location, seasonality, and raw materials (feed, electricity, fuel) prices. During the last 10 years the average milk price in Latvia has increased by 60% with variation during the seasons therefore the purpose of this paper is to analysis the milk supply and demand to its price, using the forecasting models.
Introduction
Dairy farming (milk production) is of great importance to the European Union (EU) and is one of the important sectors in agriculture economic in Latvia. Total EU-28 milk production is estimated around 154 million tons in 2014 year. According the European Commission data (2015) the EU’s main producers are Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy and Poland which together account for more than 70% of the EU milk production. Latvia accounted for 0.6% of total EU-28 milk production or around 0.9 million tons in 2014. Milk production in Latvia has continued to increase after joining the EU and in 2014 cover 133 % of the self-sufficiency of milk and about 60% of produced milk Latvia is exported. After joining the EU the dairy sector in Latvia has changed, small dairy farms could have not completed the new technological requirements of milk production and it was the time when in the country the amount of dairy cows was reduced by 9.3% during the two years from 2003 to 2004. Therefore in 2009 the numbers of dairy cows have decreased till 120.8 thousand, but during the last five years have increased and in 2014 reached 130.7 thousand cows. During the last ten years farms involved in commercial milk production often had substantial modernization of existing farm and construction of new dairy farms. The farmers are motivated to improve cows keeping and feeding. Technological solutions are being implemented: loose handling of cows, automatic milking systems, total mixed ration or usage of precise feeding technology (Salins et al., 2012). In 2011 about 200 farms were subsidized for this purpose. The smaller number of dairy cows in Latvia is partly offset by the regular growth of their milk yield. Thereby average milk yield per cow during the ten years has increased by 42% and has reached 6993 kg in 2014.