پیش بینی استراتژیک در سازمان های شرکتی
abstract
Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.
1. Introduction
Literature on strategy [1–3] and on organization theory [4–6] emphasized for a long time the external environment of the firm as a major source of uncertainty for managers in charge to detect emerging opportunities and threats and to respond timely to them. “Environmental uncertainty” has been defined as the lack of accurate information about organizations, activities and events in the external sectors of the business (micro and macro) environment of the firm, and as the difficulty to understand what the major changes are or will be [5–7].
چکیده
1. مقدمه
2. مروری بر ادبیات
2.1 عدم قطعیت محیطی
2.2 فعالیت های پیش بینی
3. کنترل عدم قطعیت "اثر" محرک های تغییر
3.1 کداک و صنعت تصویربرداری
3.2 نوکیا و صنعت تلفن همراه
3.3 لوکساتیکا و صنعت عینک
3.4 استارباکس و صنعت قهوه
4. کنترل عدم قطعیت پاسخ محرک های تغییر
5. اظهارات پایانی
abstract
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
2.1. Environmental uncertainty
2.2. Foresight activities
3. Handling the “effect” uncertainty of drivers of change
3.1. Kodak and the imaging industry
3.2. Nokia and the mobile phone industry
3.3. Luxottica and the spectacles industry
3.4. Starbucks and the coffee industry
4. Handling the “response” uncertainty of drivers of change
5. Concluding remarks
- ترجمه فارسی مقاله با فرمت ورد (word) با قابلیت ویرایش، بدون آرم سایت ای ترجمه
- ترجمه فارسی مقاله با فرمت pdf، بدون آرم سایت ای ترجمه