سلسله رشد انرژی به واسطه منابع فراگیر
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Empirical strategy
3- Data and methodology
4- Results and discussion
5- Conclusions and policy implications
References
Abstract
Gross domestic product (GDP) has been inappropriately used as the main indicator for assessing the sustainability of economic development for a long time. Inclusive wealth (IW) offers a new approach to assess sustainability by comprehensively measuring the productive base of the economy that involves three types of capital assets of nations (produced, human and natural capital), and aggregates them into a single measure of wealth. This study proposes an alternative to the literature on the conventional energy – growth nexus that widely uses GDP as a proxy of the growth. This study aims to investigate the impact of energy consumption on wealth in the IW framework and forecast the growth of IW over the next three decades. For this purpose, this study uses both parametric and non-parametric analyses on 104 countries for 1993–2014. Our results indicate that there is a negative and significant impact of energy consumption on IW growth, suggesting an unsustainable pattern of world energy consumption. Using a machine learning technique, it is forecasted that increasing the efficiency of energy consumption leads to a higher growth in average per capita IW. This study also suggests that a shift to renewables is a precondition for sustainable development.
Introduction
Access to reliable and affordable energy is essential not only for supporting basic human needs but also for creating human well-being. The central role of energy and its sustainability has also been recognized in the United Nation's sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, the pattern of world energy consumption in the past tends to be unsustainable since it is highly associated with the rapid exhaustion of natural resources and environmental pollution. Energy consumption has been a predominant source of climate change, accounting for more than 60% of total global greenhouse gasses (GHG) emission. This trend is expected to increase along with the growing population and increasing economic activity, particularly for developing countries [1]. The negative impact of energy consumption and/or economic development on environmental quality has led to a quandary over whether to boost economic growth as high as possible by encouraging higher energy consumption, or giving precedence to environmental sustainability by curbing energy consumption which might result in lower economic growth [2]. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, on the other hand, argues that environmental sustainability can be achieved without restraining economic development. The EKC hypothesis suggests the existence of a turning point in the economy subsequent to which the increasing trend in environmental degradation will be reversed (see Grossman and Krueger [3] for rationale behind the EKC hypothesis). The composition and technical effects of the economy will decouple economic growth from GHG emissions through the introduction of renewable energy sources in the energy mix, investment in new and cleaner energy technologies, and adoption of more stringent environmental regulations. As a result, environmental damages that occurred in the earlier stages of development will be ameliorated, and further economic growth will lead to a better environmental quality. Although the EKC hypothesis proposes a promising concept for sustainability, it has some caveats worth mentioning. For instance, the estimated turning point of the EKC might exist at very high levels of income per capita, which are difficult or even impossible to achieve [4–6]. Additionally, De Bruyn et al. [7] and Sugiawan et al. [8], among others, argue that over the long term, new pollutants and environmental problems might appear, creating a secondary turning point in the economy so that the declining trend in the income-environmental quality relationship will revert back to its former trend.