کنترل ریسک های مالی در واردات نفت خام
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Literature review
3- Problem description
4- Model
5- Numerical test
6- Conclusion
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Research Data
References
Abstract
Financial risks related to crude oil imports are certainly affected by crude oil price uncertainty. Our question is: How important is it to take also physical risks, such as the crude oil exporters’ political risks and transportation risks into account when controlling financial risks in line with the importer’s risk attitude when planning crude oil imports and transportation at a tactical level? In this paper, two-stage stochastic programming models are proposed to illustrate the problem, and a numerical test is conducted to better understand the effects of physical risks. The mechanism for controlling risk will be forward physical contracts. The results show that the real financial risk is much higher than the importer might believe if physical risks are not considered. Unless the importer is risk neutral, more forward crude oil will be imported when physical risks are considered, and the distribution of forward crude oil will depend strongly on correlations among risks.
Introduction
Crude oil is of strategic importance in all countries, and it is often crucial for a crude oil importer’s national economy. Every import country wants to secure an uninterrupted availability of crude oil at an affordable price. But many crude oil exporters, particularly those located in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, suffer political instability or have a high risk potential (Vivoda, 2009). The unstable political situations in these regions will create supply disruption risks for importers. There are also correlations between political risks of different exporters in the same region, since they are impacted by some common risk factors (Li et al., 2009). For example, the war in Yemen, with Iran and Saudi Arabia involved, leads to instability in the Middle East. Disruptions in supply will lead to an imbalance between supply and demand in the international crude oil market, and global crude oil prices will fluctuate. Since the global crude oil market is highly integrated, the crude oil prices of other exporters will also be affected. In addition to the political risks and crude oil price fluctuations of exporters, there are also transportation risks. Most crude oil is transported by ship. But the straits and canals in the maritime transportation network are exposed to risks due to political instability in neighboring countries, as well as terrorism, piracy, conflicts and other extreme events (Emmerson and Stevens, 2012). For example, the political instability in the Middle East threatens the safety of the Bab el Mandeb and the Suez Canal. If certain straits or canals are closed, the crude oil transportation will be affected.
Due to the political risks of exporters, transportation risks of straits and canals, and oil price uncertainty, crude oil import and transportation decisions are very challenging for importers, who want to control financial risks. But this problem is underexplored. In previous studies, the focus has mostly been on crude oil price fluctuations, and different hedging strategies are proposed. Chen et al. employed geometric Brownian motion processes to model oil price fluctuations, and determined the optimal oil procurement. Operational and financial hedging strategies are proposed by Ji et al. (2015) to manage risks caused by oil price fluctuation. Chang et al. (2011) used a dynamic multivariate GARCH to obtain a crude oil hedging strategy. Sukcharoen and Leatham (2017) proposed the use of vine copulas to capture characteristics of price changes and estimate multiproduct hedge ratios for a refinery to manage risks. In these studies, there are no considerations of selection of exporters, so the political risks of exporters are not taken into account. In addition, the transportation risks are also not considered.