قبل از سقوط: تاثیرات تنظیم زلزله در ساختمان های تجاری
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Background
3- Hypotheses
4- Modelling Approach
5- Data
6- Findings
7- Conclusions
References
Abstract
We test whether the major earthquakes in Christchurch (Canterbury, New Zealand) affected prices of earthquake-prone commercial buildings in Wellington, a city that was directly unaffected by the disaster. Specifically, we test whether official declaration of a Wellington building as earthquake-prone (with a requirement for remediation to minimum earthquake code standards) had an effect on sale price relative to similarly earthquake-prone (but yet-to-be-declared) buildings. We find that the price discount accompanying an earthquake-prone declaration in the CBD averages 45% whereas there is no observable discount on buildings yet-to-be-declared as earthquake-prone. Sale prices of currently-declared earthquake-prone commercial buildings in the suburbs also fell, but not as markedly. The sale probability of officially declared earthquake-prone buildings in Wellington rose markedly after the Christchurch earthquakes unlike the sale probability of yet-to-be-declared earthquake-prone buildings which fell slightly, reflecting buyer caution about such buildings. This pattern is indicative of forced sale of buildings following an official earthquake-prone declaration
Introduction
We examine the effects of the devastating Christchurch (Canterbury, New Zealand) earthquakes on commercial building prices in an earthquake-prone (but directly unaffected) city, Wellington. Specifically, we examine the effects of the Christchurch earthquakes on Wellington commercial building prices in the presence of regulations and building codes that resulted in some buildings being officially declared as earthquake-prone. Several papers have examined the impacts of natural and industrial disasters on housing markets, both in areas affected by the disaster and in unaffected areas.1 In addition, studies have examined the effects of floods on agricultural properties and houses in flood-prone areas.2 However, there is little or no analysis of the effects of a major natural disaster on the market for commercial buildings, especially those that were not directly affected by the disaster. Our paper, which utilises official records on earthquake-prone buildings coupled with market sales price data, provides the first such study. Our major focus is to examine the post-earthquake price impacts on commercial buildings of a public policy that declares certain buildings to be earthquake-prone, with accompanying requirements on owners to raise the structural integrity of the building. By utilising the timing of official earthquake-prone notices, we can distinguish whether the policy of declaring a building earthquake-prone has a price effect relative to buildings that are not yet declared earthquake-prone but which subsequently receive that status.