مقاله انگلیسی یک مدل ریاضی قوی توسعه یافته برای پیش بینی سیر اپیدمی در ایران
Abstract
Introduction
Survey on related models
Problem statement
Findings
Managerial implications and practical insights
Conclusion and outlook
References
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Abstract
This research develops a regression-based Robust Optimization (RO) approach to efficiently predict the number of patients with confirmed infection caused by the recent Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). The main idea is to study the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak at the first stage and then provide efficient insights to estimate the necessary resources accordingly. The convex RO with Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) objective function is utilized to project the course of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran. To validate the performance of the suggested model, a real-case study is investigated and compared to several well-known forecasting models including Simple Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment models. Furthermore, the effect of parameter uncertainties is examined using a set of sensitivity analyses. The results demonstrate that by increasing the degree (coefficient) of regression up to 8, MAD value decreases to 1378.12, and consequently, the corresponding equation becomes more accurate. On the other hand, from the 8th degree onwards, MAD value follows an upward trend. Furthermore, by increasing the level of regression uncertainty, MAD value follows a downward trend to reach 1309.28 and the estimation accuracy of the model increases accordingly. Finally, our proposed model achieves the least MAD and the greatest correlation coefficient against the other models.
Introduction
For the first time in December 2019, a new strain of Coronavirus was identified in Wuhan, China. People were diagnosed with pneumonia for no apparent reason and existing vaccines, and treatments were ineffective. The novel Coronavirus disease took the official name of COVID-19 from World Health Organization (WHO) when the number of deaths surpassed 1000 people. On January 30, 2020, WHO issued a statement declaring the novel Coronavirus, a public health emergency, posed a threat to the entire world, not just China. Following the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in various regions of the world, the government of Iran officially confirmed the epidemic on 19 Feb 2020. Since the beginning of the Coronavirus epidemic coincided with the H1N1 flu epidemic, the health system mistakenly recognized it as flu and was slow to notice the onset of the disease (Mardani et al., 2020). One of the challenging issues in the outbreak of COVID-19 is the incubation period, which varies from 3 to 14 days (Tirkolaee, Abbasian, et al., Tirkolaee, Hadian, et al., 2020). That is why the treatments did not work on patients infected by the COVID-19.
To date, some countries product vaccine and only some of them is successful. According to WHO, COVID-19 is an acute respiratory syndrome that is transmitted through respiratory droplets and airways. The examination of this disease needs the serious attention of governments to take the essential measures to reduce the impact of this global epidemic.
From 22 Feb 2020, the COVID-19 risk status went from white to yellow in Iran. In mid-February 2020, Iran became the second focal point for spreading the Coronavirus in the world after China. In early March 2020 and after the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, the Iranian minister of health stated that health centers throughout the country should be ready to provide services to the COVID-19 patients. Meanwhile, many public places and events, including schools, higher education institutions and universities, movie theaters, concerts and theater performances, national sports competitions and leagues in Tehran and other cities were gradually closed and government office hours were reduced in several provinces. According to official statistics published by WHO, Iran had the highest number of COVID-19 deaths after the USA, Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and France by the end of November 2020 (WHO, 2020).