تولید برق فتوولتائیک در چین بر اساس تجزیه و تحلیل فازی
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Literature review
3- Criteria system of risk assessment on offshore PV projects in China
4- A risk assessment model for offshore PV power generation projects
5- Empirical study
6- Management inspiration
7- Conclusions
References
Abstract
China has begun to promote offshore photovoltaic in coastal areas taking its advantages of saving land resources and proximity to load centers. However, the projects are bound to face a series of risk factors as the industry is in its infancy. This paper conducts a risk assessment on offshore photovoltaic power generation projects in China based on a fuzzy framework. Firstly, 16 risk factors affecting offshore photovoltaic power generation projects in China are identified and classified into 4 groups. Secondly, a risk assessment model is constructed involving Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Sets, Triangular Fuzzy Number and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation. Thirdly, this paper conduct an empirical study of China, and the result shows that the risk level of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects in China is medium high. Finally, some response measures are proposed. The risk index system and corresponding countermeasures can provide a reference for project managers to allocate resources to prevent risk events. Besides, the risk assessment model can help project investors to avoid too risky projects. In addition, the risk assessment on offshore photovoltaic power generation projects in China has not been discussed by scholars yet. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature and expand the knowledge.
Introduction
As the third renewable energy source in terms of global capacity, solar energy now is a highly appealing source of electricity by means of photovoltaic (PV) systems that cover the conversion of light into electricity using semiconducting materials that exhibit the PV effect [1]. Solar PV power generation, without pollution and greenhouse gas emissions once installed, is growing rapidly and has become a leading player in energy industry in China [2]. Wherein, the most typical form is the large-scale centralized ground-based PV power plant, mainly located in the northwest region including Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, etc. However, more and more problems have emerged in ground PV. For example, installation of PV panels on the ground leads to large land occupancy, thereby bringing some pressure on agricultural production [3]. At the same time, severe solar curtailment occurs because of weak power consumption capacity in regions with adequate solar resources [4]. In contrast, the development of offshore PV power generation (an example is shown in Fig. 1) in China has great advantages in overcoming such problems. On one hand, China has nearly 18,000 kilometers of continental coastline [5], and the installation of large-scale centralized offshore PV generation facilities along the sea can greatly conserve increasingly precious onshore land resources. On the other hand, China’s eastern coastal regions are economically developed with a high population density, and the development of offshore PV power generation provides an ideal solution for the growing power demand of these load centers, without the need for long-distance power transmission from northwestern regions. In addition, installation of PV panels at sea can reduce the temperature of PV modules, reduce the dust adhesion of components, and increase the energy conversion efficiency, resulting in more power output than land PV [6]. Moreover, seawater contains Magnesium Chloride, which could replace the highly toxic and pricy Cadmium Chloride that is one of the key components in PV panels [7]. At present, only several offshore PV power generation projects have been completed and put into operation in the southeast coastal areas of China, and some other projects are at the preparatory or construction stage. Table 1 shows part of their information. It can be said that China’s offshore PV power generation is still in its infancy. Corresponding core technologies are relatively immature such as the central inverter featuring the integration of the inverter, the transformer and the switchgear.