شواهدی از اصلاحات مالیاتی ایتالیا در سال ۲۰۱۲
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Institutional setting
3- Data
4- Difference-in-differences estimates
5- Identification
6- IV estimates
7- Robustness and additional results
8- Conclusions
References
Abstract
This paper assesses the extent to which property taxes are capitalized into property values, exploiting the 2012 Italian tax reform. Municipal-level variation in the level of the property tax rates is instrumented using the exogenous staggered timing of local elections. We show that the incumbent local governments with upcoming elections in 2013 shifted the composition of fiscal revenues towards lower property tax. Our 2SLS estimate shows that a one standard deviation increase in municipal-level property tax intensity leads to a 2.7% reduction of municipal property values in the year of the reform. We elicit information on the characteristics of the compliers and show that these municipalities feature inefficient public spending and low social capital.
Introduction
The property tax capitalization hypothesis predicts that differences in property values between jurisdictions reflect differences in expected property tax liabilities, holding constant other housing market characteristics. This hypothesis was seminally developed and tested by Oates (1969, 1973). The volume of empirical studies that followed Oates’s work largely documents that changes in property tax liabilities are capitalized into property values at different degrees (either partial, full or over capitalization).1 While the seminal literature focused primarily on estimating the degree of property tax capitalization, little is known about its determinants. The extent to which property taxes are capitalized into property values depends not only upon the level of local public expenditure, but also upon its effectiveness in providing local public services. This argument, although theoretically grounded, lacks of empirical validation.