نقشه کشی ریسک سیل قرن ۲۱
ترجمه نشده

نقشه کشی ریسک سیل قرن ۲۱

عنوان فارسی مقاله: نقشه کشی ریسک سیل قرن ۲۱ در مکان های منتخب خدمات پارک ملی ایالات متحده
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: 21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park Service
مجله/کنفرانس: مدیریت ریسک آب و هوایی – Climate Risk Management
رشته های تحصیلی مرتبط: جغرافیا
گرایش های تحصیلی مرتبط: مخاطرات آب و هوایی، مخاطرات محیطی
کلمات کلیدی فارسی: ریسک سیل
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی: Flood risk
نوع نگارش مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی (Research Article)
نمایه: Scopus – Master Journals List – DOAJ
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100211
دانشگاه: University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
ناشر: الزویر - Elsevier
نوع ارائه مقاله: ژورنال
نوع مقاله: ISI
سال انتشار مقاله: 2020
ایمپکت فاکتور: 3.438 در سال 2019
شاخص H_index: 18 در سال 2020
شاخص SJR: 1.067 در سال 2019
شناسه ISSN: 2212-0936
شاخص Quartile (چارک): Q1 در سال 2019
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی: PDF
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 11
وضعیت ترجمه: ترجمه نشده است
قیمت مقاله انگلیسی: رایگان
آیا این مقاله بیس است: خیر
آیا این مقاله مدل مفهومی دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله پرسشنامه دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله متغیر دارد: دارد
کد محصول: E14599
رفرنس: دارای رفرنس در داخل متن و انتهای مقاله
فهرست مطالب (انگلیسی)

Abstract


1- Introduction


2- Methods


3- Study sites and data


4- Results


5- Discussion and conclusion


Acknowledgements


Appendix A. Supplementary data


References

بخشی از مقاله (انگلیسی)

Abstract


Assessing flood risk using stationary flood frequency analysis techniques is commonplace. However, it is increasingly evident that the stationarity assumption of these analyses does not hold as anthropogenic climate change could shift a site’s hydroclimate beyond the range of historical behaviors. We employ nonstationary flood frequency models using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to model changing flood risk for select seasons at twelve National Parks across the U.S. In this GEV model, the location and/or scale parameters of the distribution are allowed to change as a function of time-variable covariates. We use historical precipitation and modeled flows from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), a landsurface model that simulates land–atmosphere fluxes using water and energy balance equations, as covariates to fit a best nonstationary GEV model to each site. We apply climate model projections of precipitation and VIC flows to these models to obtain future flood probability estimates. Our model results project a decrease in flood risk for sites in the southwestern U.S. region and an increase in flood risk for sites in northern and eastern regions of the U.S. for the selected seasons. The methods and results presented will enable the NPS to develop strategies to ensure public safety and efficient infrastructure management and planning in a nonstationary climate.


Introduction


Anthropogenic climate change has increased global mean annual land-surface air temperatures and evidence supports a change in the behavior of precipitation (Hartmann et al., 2013) and streamflow extremes (Hirsch and Ryberg, 2012; Mallakpour and Villarini, 2015; Ahn and Palmer, 2016). Given the non-stationary nature of our climate system at present, the common assumption in traditional flood frequency analysis techniques that flood risk will remain stationary into the future must be questioned – climate change is anticipated to continue to shift hydroclimate beyond the range of historical behaviors (Milly et al., 2008).


As temperatures rise, we expect an increase in total precipitable water in the atmosphere (Trenberth et al., 2003), which was already observed over much of North America (Ross and Elliott, 1996). Consequently, Hartmann et al. (2013) suggest a likely observed increase in either the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation events across North America, particularly in central North America. Studies using extreme value theory and precipitation-temperature scaling also generally support this claim (DeGaetano, 2009; Wasko and Sharma, 2017).

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