تحقیق و توسعه نظامی
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Background
3- Methodology
4- Changing characteristics of warfare
5- Military technology developments
6- Scenario planning for the future war environment
7- Discussion and conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
Abstract
Wars have been a part of humanity since prehistoric times, and are expected to remain an important component of future human societies. Since the beginning of the history wars have evolved in parallel with the changes in Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values (STEEPV). The changing circumstances unavoidably affect the characteristics of warfare through its motivations, shape and size. Armies have adapted themselves to these changing characteristics of warfare through Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) by introducing new military concepts and technologies. Based on the overview of the evolution of military technologies and concepts as a response to changing conditions, the aim of the present study is to anticipate what and how future technologies and concepts will shape warfare and drive impending RMAs. To answer this question, first the RMA literature is reviewed within a broader historical context to understand the extent to which military concepts and technologies affected the RMAs. Then, a time-based technological trend analysis is conducted through the analysis of military patents to understand the impact of technological developments on military concepts. Following the historical analyses, two scenarios are developed for the future of military R&D based on ‘concept-driven’ and ‘technology-driven’ factors. The article is concluded with a discussion about the implications of future scenarios for military R&D, and likely RMAs through the changes of concepts and technologies, and possible consequences such as transformations in organizational structures of armies, new skill and capacity requirements, military education systems, and decision-making processes.
Introduction
Wars have been a part of human life since prehistoric times and they are expected to play an important role in the future. The shape, characteristics, and size of wars have changed drastically over time due to transformations in Societies, Technologies, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values/Cultures (STEEPV). The military's response to changing characteristics of warfare has been through ‘technology-driven’ and ‘concept-driven’ approaches. There have been times when new technologies enabled armies to develop new war concepts; and times when new concepts required the development of new technologies. In both cases, armies have aimed to adapt themselves to changing characteristic of warfare through military Research and Development (R&D), which is called “Revolution in Military Affairs” (RMA) (Krepinevich, 1992).