پیش بینی گزارش حسابرسی: کاربرد مدل غیر خطی برنولی
Abstract
1- Introduction
2-Theoretical framework, literature review and hypothesis development
3- Research methodology
4- Research findings
5- Concluding remarks
References
Abstract
Purpose – The widespread application of traditional grey model (GM) in different academic fields such as electrical engineering, education, mechanical engineering and agriculture provided the authors with an incentive to conduct the present empirical research in an accounting field, in particular, auditing practice. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to employ the nonlinear type of the original GM to forecast the drastically changed data on audit reports, primarily due to the fact that the linear nature of GM is unable to forecast nonlinear data precisely. In essence, this paper adds value to the strand of audit report literature by examining the impact of different financial ratios on auditors’ opinion and then forecasting audit reports by employing GMs. Design/methodology/approach – The grey forecasting model is known as a system containing uncertain information presented by grey numbers, equations and matrices. The grey forecasting model is employed by using a differential equation in an uncertain system with limited data set which is suitable for smoothing discrete data. In addition, the analyses are conducted by applying a sample of top 50 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011-2016. Findings – The findings suggest that audit reports are most influenced by the current ratio and conversely, least influenced by the ratio of working capital turnover. Moreover, the authors argue that the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model is more precise than the nonlinear grey Bernoulli model and GM in forecasting audit reports. Originality/value – The current study may give more strength to stakeholders in order to analyse and forecast audit report.
Introduction
Auditing practice is considered as one of the fundamental parts of corporate liability regime. In this regard, the fulfilment of corporate liability function is primarily dependent on authentic and reliable information examined by an external and independent auditor. Indeed, auditors incorporate “value added” to the accounting information provided by the firms and validate their financial statements. Further, auditing is performed and the audit report is prepared with due professional care, suggesting that a considerable number of audit-related issues and uncertainties are addressed solely on the basis of auditors’ professional judgment. In general, auditors are appointed to provide reasonable assurance that financial statements are free from material misstatements, whether due to fraud or error. A long range of corporate stockholders including bankers, vendors, creditors, employees, customers and the government rely and base their economic decisions to different degrees on the information reflected in audited financial statements. From stockholders’ viewpoint, the usefulness of an audit lies in the fact that how well the auditors conduct the auditing practice to find and detect material errors, fraud, illegal actions and going concern issues in financial statements and express their opinions on the level of compliance of these items with the statutory requirements and standards. Therefore, audit reports play a dominant role in stockholders’ decision-making process and the present study, accordingly, attempts to address this issue by forecasting the reports using grey models (GMs) in practice (Hayes et al., 2014). An audit report is the final product of an audit process, serving as a major vehicle of communication between the auditor and interested users. This report occupies no more than a few standard lines and paragraphs and consequently those not knowledgeable in auditing and/or accounting may regard this brevity as rather inadequate for expressing a professional opinion and believe that the reports somehow lack the required substance. However, audit reports are the outcome of great care and the consummation of a rigorous and lengthy audit process and therefore the preceding argument is just a paradox. In addition, the incremental demand for reliable information in today’s economy underlines a growing need for independent and capable bodies to ensure the reliability of such information and reports (Hayes et al., 2014). Altogether, the information content of different types of audit reports may directly enhance or moderate the perceptions of financial statement users. In other words, the standard unqualified audit reports contain the highest level of assurance and reliability of financial statements and any deviation from the standard report appears to convey a less favourable message about the financial position and health of a given business to interested users.