چارچوبی برای ارزیابی ریسک، مدیریت و سنجش
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Literature review
3- Supply chain risks
4- Motivation for this research
5- Methodology
6- Numerical illustration
7- Conclusions and future work
References
Abstract
Nowadays risks become a critical part in our life since they are involved in everything we do and participate. Some people do not want to do anything which associated with risk and others flourish on risk. In both types of people, they must relieve their risk through utilizing safety measures such as flame retardant suits and helmets for race car drivers, and safety ropes for rock climbers. All risks can be minimized to a manageable level by employing the proper mitigation strategy. In supply chain, the decisionmaking process contains risks which can be influential on the company’s progress in introducing a new product, expanding in various markets, and outsourcing manufacturing operations. Companies will be likely to perform well via considering risks in their decisions and employing the proper mitigation strategy for responding to the unexpected events The subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness which exist in reality are the key factors to make risks difficult to handle Hence, risk analysis, mitigation and control provide recommendations for making suitable decisions. In order to quantify risks in supply chain, an integrated method with a neutrosophic analytical hierarchy process (N-AHP) and neutrosophic technique has been demonstrated for this purpose. It is aimed for matching similarity to the ideal solution (N-TOPSIS) by order preference. The neutrosophic values in our research can deal effectively and efficiently with vague, uncertain and in incomplete information which has a significant impact on risk management. For illustrating the suggested methodology, a real case study is illustrated.
Introduction
All processes and decisions in business environment are apt to uncertainty. The wrong estimations and misjudgments are the result of uncertainty. We should monitor and manage uncertainty continuously since it has critical impacts when exposed late. Due to increased uncertainty, the significance considerations of risk have grown. We have noted this term being applied in various fields such as marketing [1], management [2], health care [3], decision theory [4], finance [5] and emergency planning [6]. We can determine risk as ‘‘Something occurs as a result of not knowing future’s events accurately". The risk increases due to increasing uncertainties and these uncertainties creates a gap among what happens and what a company has planned. The identification and estimation process of risk is the key elements for managing it. The risk management process includes understanding the reasons that give rise to probable problem, and then estimating probability and destructive impact of such problems. The output of risk management process will include the summary of analysis concerning situational risks. This information will be used in making strategic decisions. The uncertain, unplanned and seedy events causes supply chain disruptions when connected with the supply chain of organization. The supply chain disruptions are the unexpected and unplanned events which may occurs in supply chain and impact the predictable flow of components and materials. These disruptions can be either internal or external to the organization, but internal to the supply chain network and external to the environment are observed as supply chain risks. Many problems are due to supply chain risks such as increasing production cost, cause losses to the organization, stock out, long lead-times, and disability to meet customer demand. Then, the estimation process of supply chain risks has become the necessity of the hour.