پیش بینی پویا فعالیت های نوآورانه
Abstract
1-Introduction
2-Related Literature and Research Results
3-Methodology
4-Result
5-Conclusion
References
Abstract
With the current fast pace of time it is crucially important to make reliable and trustworthy forecasts of market trends in order to keep abreast of competition and maintain a long-term competitiveness. This article explores possibility to make forecasts about innovation activity dynamics in industries based on data concerning changes in competitive structure and intensity. It contains an overview of empirical evidences concerning relationship between dynamics of competition and innovation activity from the food industry of Russian Federation. In order to provide a complete research of interrelations between abovementioned factors we put forward and empirically test a new approach considering market barriers analysis and estimation of market entry threats. For identifying cause-and-effects relationships between the various factors in this study we use the mathematical statistics methodology. The concentration overview was performed on the basis of financial statement database. Large industry merger and acquisition dataset over the period 2006-2012 was used to describe industry competition. The research for food industry through the Russian regions explored relations between factors of industrial competition, such as the size of market barriers and probability of new competitors’ entry, and factors of innovative activity, including expenditures on technologies and volumes of innovative goods’ production. Given results make possible using suggested approach to a competition dynamics analysis for purposes of forecasting of innovative activity in industry.
Introduction
One of the key factors for the long-term competitiveness of the company in a market conditions is ability to make trustworthy forecasts of the business environment changes. According to the basic principles of management and the industrial organization theory, one of the top issues is to examine the competitive environment, competition dynamics, and competitive structure of the industry. The innovative activity of companies is an extremely important factor of their competitiveness and competition in industry. The experience of companies, operating in global fast developing markets (primarily, high-tech industries), demonstrates the importance of immediate reaction on technologic trends fluctuations and of the ability to anticipate the trend of innovation dynamics. At the same time, this fact has also theoretic background. Schumpeter (1994), descending the evolutionary approach, marked out that nowadays the traditional price competition is being changed by processes of the creative destruction. It appears, for instance, in new product or technology, threatening competitors not only by lower profits, but a bankruptcy at all. In order to come up with methods of forecasting of innovative activity in industry it is necessary to determine the influencing factors and to find out cause-and-effect relationships.