دانلود مقاله مدل تصمیم گیری چند هدفه در برنامه ریزی انرژی تجدیدپذیر
چکیده
1. مقدمه
2. بررسی ادبیات
3. برنامه ریزی هدف فازی دو فازی و مدل ریاضی پیشنهادی
4. نتایج کاربردی و تجزیه و تحلیل مقایسه ای
5. بحث و پیامدهای سیاست
6. نتیجه گیری
بیانیه مشارکت نویسنده CRediT
اعلامیه منافع رقابتی
ضمیمه الف. جدول خلاصه مرور ادبیات
پیوست B. مقادیر پارامتر مدل
ضمیمه ج. تعاریف اختصارات و کدهای LINGO
کدهای فاز اول LINGO
کدهای فاز دوم LINGO
منابع
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Two-phase fuzzy goal programming and the proposed mathematical model
4. Application results and comparative analysis
5. Discussion and policy implications
6. Conclusion
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Declaration of competing interest
Appendix A. Literature Review Summary Table
Appendix B. Model Parameter Values
Appendix C. Definitions of Abbreviations and LINGO Codes
First phase LINGO Codes
Second phase LINGO Codes
References
چکیده
افزایش سریع جمعیت جهان همراه با روند رو به رشد رشد اقتصاد جهانی مشکلات جدی مربوط به مصرف انرژی را ایجاد می کند. در این راستا، تجزیه و تحلیل جامع وضعیت فعلی و بالقوه انرژی در پرتو روندهای جمعیتی، شاخص های اصلی اقتصادی، شرایط فنی، نگرانی های اجتماعی و زیست محیطی به موضوع مهمی برای توسعه استراتژی های انرژی جهانی و منطقه ای به خوبی برنامه ریزی شده تبدیل شده است. در این مطالعه، یک مدل تصمیم‌گیری چندهدفه برای برنامه‌ریزی انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر برای تعیین مناسب‌ترین تنوع منابع برای ترکیه با تمرکز بر پنج منبع انرژی تجدیدپذیر، یعنی خورشیدی، باد، زمین گرمایی، برق آبی و زیست توده ساخته شده است. چهار تابع هدف در مدل چندهدفه پیشنهادی ارائه شده است که شامل حداکثر کردن امتیاز فنی مناطق، حداکثرسازی ایجاد شغل، حداکثر کردن امتیاز محیطی و به حداقل رساندن هزینه می‌شود. به عنوان یک روش حل، یک رویکرد برنامه ریزی هدف فازی دو فازی انجام می شود. مدل پیشنهادی با استفاده از نرم افزار LINGO به عنوان یک حل کننده جامع برای بهینه سازی مدل حل شده است. مناسب بودن روش پیشنهادی با مقایسه آن با سایر روش‌های چندهدفه تحلیل می‌شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که برای ارضای اهداف مشخص شده، اکثر نیاز انرژی باید از طریق انرژی‌های خورشیدی و برق آبی تامین شود.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
The rapid increase in the world population along with the rising trend of global economic growth triggers serious problems related to energy consumption. In this regard, a comprehensive analysis of the current and potential energy situation in the light of demographic trends, main economic indicators, technical conditions, social and environmental concerns has become a significant issue for developing well-planned global and regional energy strategies. In this study, a multi-objective decision-making model is constructed for renewable energy planning to determine the most appropriate resource diversity for Turkey by focusing on five renewable energy sources, namely solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, and biomass. There are four objective functions presented in the proposed multi-objective model including maximization of the technical score of regions, maximization of the job creation, maximization of the environmental score, and minimization of the cost. As a solution methodology, a two-phase fuzzy goal programming approach is performed. The proposed model is solved using LINGO software as a comprehensive solver for model optimization. The appropriateness of the proposed method is analyzed by comparing it with other multi-objective methods. Results reveal that the majority of the energy demand should be met via solar and hydroelectric energies for the satisfaction of the indicated objectives.
Introduction
The ongoing growth in the world population and the global economic development of countries together with the effects of industrialization, urbanization, and technological developments, have caused a dramatic increase in the amount of resource consumption. In the meantime, the level of consumption, the most inevitable of which is the need for energy, maintains its rise in many ways despite the fact that the world's fossil resources are finite and rapidly depleting. Since the world already has limited reserves in terms of fossil fuel resources, and these resources are not evenly distributed between countries, it is not possible to meet the energy demand with the existing fossil resources in the short term. Moreover, the use of fossil fuels causes damage to the environment and living conditions, especially human health, animal life, and nature. This situation is also considered as another threat. Hence, it seems inevitable that the energy problem will be one of the major challenges humanity must deal with in the short term since energy is considered one of the most important subjects on the agenda of policymakers. In these circumstances, decision-makers have started to find out alternative sources to meet the energy needs. Energy sources in the renewable form are considered fundamental primary sources of alternative energy that require strategic planning in terms of sustainable development. Therefore, reducing the use of fossil resources and replacing them with renewable energy sources in a controlled manner are both critical for energy sustainability and vital for energy planning in the long term.
Conclusion
Real-world problems in planning activities require consideration of multiple conflicting objectives simultaneously. In recent years, renewable energy planning has become a very important issue, which poses itself as a multi-objective problem due to its impact on economic, social, and environmental concerns. As the number of options increases, it becomes more difficult for decision-makers to determine specific renewable energy technology among alternatives [103]. Therefore, the proposed model for the prioritization of renewable energy sources based on twenty-one electricity distribution zones in Turkey has been developed in a multi-objective structure.
The advantage of the proposed multi-objective model is that it can be further modified by integrating particular considerations such as national renewable energy targets and local incentive support schemes. In this way, the model enables the evaluation of several objectives simultaneously and better accommodates various parameters together in order to contribute to the process of determining the most suitable renewable energy technologies in future energy planning. Thus, this study presents a framework that provides a useful roadmap for decision-makers in the development and implementation of sustainable energy plans by analyzing renewable energy resources from a regional perspective to utilize energy potential efficiently. In addition, another contribution made through this study is the use of efficient solution methods comparatively in multi-objective analysis, which allows decision-makers to decide on the most appropriate evaluation method in the planning process. Hence, the two-phase fuzzy goal programming method is utilized for the evaluation procedures in comparison with three other multi-objective methods including lexicographic optimization, goal programming with absolute deviation, and goal programming with percentage deviation.