مقاله انگلیسی کنترل سرمایه و تناسب سیاست پولی
Abstract
Graphical abstract
JEL classifications
Keywords
Introduction
Literature review
Model
Welfare loss measurement and parameter calibration
Analysis of characteristics of crossborder capital flows and risk transfer mechanism
Tobin tax and monetary policy coordination
Conclusions and implications
Declaration of Competing Interest
References
ABSTRACT
With the relaxation of capital controls and enriching capital flow channels, the potential negative impact of short-term capital flight on emerging market economies (EMEs), such as China, has been developing. This paper develops a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to address the policy coordination between capital control and monetary policy, thereby introducing the Tobin tax on capital flow. We simulate the applicability of the Tobin tax and its collaboration with monetary policy in the context of crossborder capital flows triggered by external monetary policy spillovers. Regarding the capital outflow from EMEs caused by the external monetary policy, we find that “enterprises Tobin tax + interest rate cut” or “household Tobin tax + interest rate hike” can prevent capital outflow. Based on the welfare analysis, we find that the former is more feasible. The simulation results suggest that although the
Tobin tax can ease the pressures on monetary authority by restraining short-term capital outflows, its ability to stabilize the financial markets is limited.
Introduction
Emerging market economies (EMEs) generally encounter dilemmas in capital flow management. On the one hand, the deregulation of capital account has hidden systemic risks in the context of financial liberalization. On the other hand, conventional capital policy tools tend to be less effective, and monetary policy space is being squeezed out by efforts preventing speculation and maintaining exchange rate stability. One possible reason is that when the Fed reduces interest rates to zero, speculators profit from arbitrage by borrowing cheap dollars to buy higher-yield bonds or other currencies. However, when the Fed signals it will raise interest rates, it would lead to a stronger dollar and a squeeze on arbitrage space. Those speculators who brought assets by borrowing in dollars start selling their foreign assets, thereby triggering devaluation in currencies and capital outflow for the EMEs.