مقاله انگلیسی پیش بینی شدت پاندمی کووید-19 در میان جهش های نوظهور کروناویروس سندرم حاد تنفسی 2
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusion and Recommendation
References
1. Introduction
Recently, there have been different reports globally concerning the variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) family that spreads even quicker than the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) [1]. In Wuhan, China, a new virus (COVID-19) was detected in December 2019. The COVID-19 has spread throughout China and the rest of the world [2, 3]. Coronaviruses are highly contagious and rapidly transferred from person to person. The disease, which is now a global pandemic, has spread swiftly around the world, causing severe public health issues as well as an economic crisis. When unpredictable infectious diseases arise, causing an outbreak leads to an epidemic and eventually results in a pandemic [4]. Researchers attempt to use modelling techniques to explain the observable trends and predict specific patterns in the future so that health practitioners can organize health care programs, and their responses can be planned to mitigate such situations [4, 5]. Wangari et al. [6] noted that epidemiological models are becoming increasingly useful for understanding the complex processes regulating infectious disease transmission.
Phan [7] reported that one of the characteristics of COVID-19 is its highly pathogenic nature and possibly a zoonotic agent that quickly spreads among people, which makes it very dangerous for the world and needs proper measures put in place to curb or control the spread by each country. Scientists are putting in measures by actively conducting empirical studies to make relevant decisions concerning COVID-19 that may end the pandemic. Anjorin Hindawi Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine Volume 2022, Article ID 3163854, 17 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3163854 [8] reported that the risk to global public health, including the extreme acute threat in 2002, is an outbreak of respiratory syndrome (SARS) that caused 800 deaths with approximately 8000 reported cases. Emerging infectious diseases continue to threaten humanity and cause many deaths, which reduce the world population drastically. According to estimates, the H1N1 pandemic of 2009 killed 18500 people; 800 people out of 2500 cases in 2012 died from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) [8, 9]. Ebola outbreak killed 11310 people out of 28616 cases in 2014, and the latest coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has killed more than 2.43 million people out of 110 million reported cases [8, 9]. This research focuses on four countries (United Kingdom, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria). The reason for selecting these countries was because, according to a report by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), these countries recorded the first recorded cases of the SARS-CoV-2 new variant [10]. The ending section of the year 2020 saw many countries around the globe recording different forms of SARS-CoV-2. According to a report released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in December 2020, several SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating worldwide [10].