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Abstract
Introduction
Prior empirical research
Theory
Research methodology
Findings
Discussion and conclusions
References
Abstract
Purpose – Taking a communication perspective, the paper explores management’s rhetoric in profit warnings, whose sole purpose is to disclose unexpected bad news. Design/methodology/approach – Adopting a close-reading approach to text analysis, the authors analyse three profit warnings of the now-collapsed Carillion, contrasting the rhetoric with contemporaneous investor conference calls to discuss the profit warnings and board minutes recording boardroom discussions of the case company’s precarious financial circumstances. The analysis applies an Aristotelian framework, focussing on logos (appealing to logic and reason), ethos (appealing to authority) and pathos (appealing to emotion) to examine how Carillion’s board and management used language to persuade shareholders concerning the company’s adverse circumstances. Findings – As non-routine communications, the language in profit warnings displays and mimics characteristics of routine communications by appealing primarily to logos (logic and reason). The rhetorical profiles of investor conference calls and board meeting minutes differ from profit warnings, suggesting a different version of the story behind the scenes. The authors frame the three profit warnings as representing three stages of communication as follows: denial, defiance and desperation and, for our case company, ultimately, culminating in defeat. Research limitations/implications – The research is limited to the study of profit warnings in one case company. Originality/value – The paper views profit warnings as a communication artefact and examines the rhetoric in these corporate documents to elucidate their key features. The paper provides novel insights into the role of profit warnings as a corporate communication vehicle/genre delivering bad news. Keywords Profit warnings, Corporate communication, Rhetoric, Carillion, Bad news, Crisis communication Paper type Research paper.
Introduction
Profit warnings (announcements of large negative earnings surprises) occur when companies issue trading updates/earnings press releases forecasting earnings materially below market expectations. Alves et al. (2009, p. 449) characterise profit warnings as “voluntary trading updatesthat signal a material deterioration in profitability and earnings relative to market expectations.” Under the EU and UK law, [1] listed companies must disclose price-sensitive information immediately. The Financial Conduct Authority (2021, Section 2.1.3) requires price-sensitive disclosures to be “prompt and fair”. Therefore, we consider profit warning documents mandatory, whilst the detailed disclosures are voluntary, absent regulations on these disclosures. Roberts (2014) characterises investors trading on profit warnings as the equivalent of catching a falling knife. The Investors’ Chronicle’s Bearbull (2002) provides insights into managers’ psychology in disclosing profit warnings: Profit warnings come in threes because managers react to bad news with overconfidence, guilt and shame at failure, such that they are unable to accept the failure in one blow.