تاثیر انتشار اطلاعات و رفتار سرمایه گذاری بر انتشار محصولات
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Literature review
3- Theoretical framework
4- Simulation and numerical results
5- Conclusions
References
Abstract
Social networks play an important role in financial markets because the information diffusion in social networks influences the participation of investors. Prior studies have investigated the impact of investor social networks, but few have explored the impact of investment behavior based on information spread in social networks. In this paper, we propose a model for studying the influence that information dissemination and investment behavior in social networks have on the adoption of internet investment products. Information spread process, temporary investment, regular investment and divestment are considered. The results show that the positive influence of regular investment and the negative impact of divestment are not sensitive to the time scale. In addition, the positive impact of regular investment rate is obvious only when the temporary investment rate is not too small, and vice versa. Furthermore, the negative influence of divestment and the information rejection can hardly be offset by increasing the regular investment rate.
Introduction
Nowadays, investors are faced with an increasingly complex investment environment in which massive amounts of information need to be processed [1]. In financial markets, information diffuses in social networks among investors and influences their investment decisions [2].With the development of online social network and internet finance, the impact of social networks on financial markets, especially on the diffusion of internet investment products, has drawn increasing attention over the years. An internet investment product is a personal investment product that is designed and issued by commercial banks and other financial institutions, and is presented and available for purchase on online platforms. Investors make investments and get fixed or unfixed returns according to the relevant contract. YuE Bao is the most widely known example in China. YuE Bao is a money market fund product that was launched in June 2013 on the online payment platform Alipay. According to data from Eastmoney, by June 2017, the fund size of YuE Bao had reached 1493.5 billion Yuan, which exceeded the total amount of personal deposits at China Merchants Bank at the end of 2016 [3]. Substantial numbers of internet investment products have emerged ever since. For a newly introduced internet investment product, an investor may adopt it and make investment decisions according to the information gathered from acquaintances, and they may divest for the same reason [4-6]. Thus, the expansion of the market size of an investment product can be mainly dependent on the propagation of its investors, and it is important to study the information diffusion on investors’social networks. One way to shed light on how investment ideas diffuse among investors via social networks is to study network characters that influence investment behaviors [7]. The most widely used method is to define a network on a certain basis to obtain the whole network topology and then conduct a panel analysis to explore the impact of investor social networks on investment behaviors or asset prices [8-10]. In our study, we aim to conduct an analysis that uses the epidemic-spreading mechanism to explore the diffusion of internet investment products. We propose an investment contagion model that is based on a classic epidemic model to study the effects of information spread and investment behavior on the diffusion of internet investment products. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we present previous studies on investor networks. In Section 3, we propose a diffusion model of internet investment products. Theoretical calculus is conducted to study the investment dynamics. In Section 4, we first conduct a simulation to examine the accuracy of our model. Second, a numerical analysis is performed to explore the time evolution of diffusion of investment behaviors. In Section 5, the main conclusions are summarized, and suggestions for investment product promotion strategies are provided.