اثرات پیر شدن جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی
ترجمه نشده

اثرات پیر شدن جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی

عنوان فارسی مقاله: تأثیرات غیرخطی پیر شدن جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth
مجله/کنفرانس: ژاپن و اقتصاد جهانی - Japan and the World Economy
رشته های تحصیلی مرتبط: اقتصاد
کلمات کلیدی فارسی: پیری جمعیت، اثرات غیرخطی، رشد اقتصادی
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی: Population aging، Non-linear effects، Economic growth
نوع نگارش مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی (Research Article)
نمایه: Scopus - Master Journals List - JCR
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2019.100963
دانشگاه: Kangwon National University, Department of International Trade and Business, Chuncheon, 200-701, Republic of Korea
ناشر: الزویر - Elsevier
نوع ارائه مقاله: ژورنال
نوع مقاله: ISI
سال انتشار مقاله: 2019
ایمپکت فاکتور: 0/744 در سال 2018
شاخص H_index: 31 در سال 2019
شاخص SJR: 0/250 در سال 2018
شناسه ISSN: 0922-1425
شاخص Quartile (چارک): Q3 در سال 2018
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی: PDF
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 17
وضعیت ترجمه: ترجمه نشده است
قیمت مقاله انگلیسی: رایگان
آیا این مقاله بیس است: خیر
آیا این مقاله مدل مفهومی دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله پرسشنامه دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله متغیر دارد: دارد
کد محصول: E12690
رفرنس: دارای رفرنس در داخل متن و انتهای مقاله
فهرست انگلیسی مطالب

Abstract


1- Introduction


2- Empirical specification


3- Empirical results


4- Summary and concluding remarks


References

نمونه متن انگلیسی مقاله

Abstract


Using panel data for 142 countries for the period from 1960 to 2014, we assess the effects of population aging on economic growth. We find that population aging proxied by old-age population share (or old-age dependency ratio) negatively affects economic growth only when it reaches a certain high level and its negative effects grow stronger as population aging deepens. The nonlinear relationship between population aging and economic growth is associated with the historical nonlinear relationship between the shares of old and working-age population. In the early stages of a demographic shift in most countries, as the old-age population share increases, the working-age population share also tends to increase. Only when the share of old-age population is sufficiently high, the increase in the share of old-age population has coincided with the decline in the share of working age population, thereby having a negative relationship with economic growth. These results can clarify why some previous papers failed to uncover a negative relationship between aging population and economic growth. We also find that population aging has hampered economic growth during more recent years, especially in more aged countries which are mostly developed countries.


Introduction


During the past few decades, most countries have experienced rapid changes in the age structure of their populations. For example, many East Asian countries have experienced a rapid shift in their age structure from a high youth-age population share to a high working-age population share and then to a high old-age population share. A rapid increase in working-age population share occurred in these countries during the 1970s and 1980s and this transition contributed substantially to East Asia’s so-called economic miracle (Bloom and Williamson, 1998). Such a period of demographic dividend did not last long, however. These countries in Asia are now experiencing population aging at a rate higher than in any other regions. As compared to medium-age workers (more generally, the workingage population), the elderly participate less actively in the labor force, their productivities are lower (Skirbekk, 2003; Aiyar et al., 2016; Liu and Westelius, 2016), and they save less (Park and Shin, 2012; Horioka and Niimi, 2017). Thus, if a number of people in the working-age population are replaced by an equivalent number among the old-age population, other things being equal, then population aging in a country will hamper its economic growth, thus imposing a significant demographic burden.1 However, previous empirical studies examining the overall impact of population aging on economic growth have often yielded mixed results, as reviewed in Nagarajan et al. (2013). For example, using a panel dataset for the period 1960–2005, Bloom et al., 2008aBloom et al., (2008a, 2008b) find that the effect of old age on growth is negative in the short run but insignificant in the long run. Similarly, using the partial adjustment model in a panel framework and a dataset for 80 countries for the period 1960–2005, Lee et al. (2013) find that population aging does not appear to hold back economic growth. More recently, Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) argue that countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more rapidly because of the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in these countries.

  • اشتراک گذاری در

دیدگاه خود را بنویسید:

تاکنون دیدگاهی برای این نوشته ارسال نشده است

اثرات پیر شدن جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی
نوشته های مرتبط
مقالات جدید
لوگوی رسانه های برخط

logo-samandehi

پیوندها