تأثیر سیاست محدودیت مالی بر میزان مصرف ساکنان
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Literature review and commentary
3- The main points and connotations of financial restraint
4- The effect of mechanism analysis of financial restraint to residents’ consumption
5- The quantification of China’s financial restraint policies
6- An empirical test on the threshold effect of financial restraint residents’ consumption suppression
7- Policy recommendations
References
Abstract
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to test whether the policies of China’s financial restraint have an inhibitory effect on the consumption of residents.
Design/methodology/approach - This study used the principal component analysis for constructing a financial restraint index and also used empirical methodology.
Findings - The authors found that financial restraint policies create rent opportunities for banking sector and production sector, which further creates the rent opportunities for the household sector. Such transfer of rent and redistribution will have an inhibitory effect on residents’ consumption. The financial restraint policies directly and indirectly inhibit the growth of residents’ income; and in theory, the purpose of financial restraint policy is to promote economic growth, thus promoting residents’ consumption. Thus, the financial restraint policies impacting the residents’ consumption are non-linear and test the threshold effect of financial restraints on the residents’ consumption of China.
Research limitations/implications - This paper’s theoretical contribution includes: increasing the connotation of financial restraint in the policies of stock market and foreign exchange controls, and further developing the financial restraint theory; and exploring the inhibitory effect on the consumption of residents from the perspective of financial restraints to enrich the connotation of the consumption theory.
Originality/value - The findings in this study can help the financial authorities to gradually relax the financial restraint policies to encourage residents’ consumption.
Introduction
Since the reform and opening up, China has taken an investment-driven and export-oriented development path, while the strongest driving force of Chinese economic growth is not consumption but its investment and net exports, which has benefitted the rapid growth of economy. However, the high economic growth which relies on high input and exports will result in the continue increase of investment rates and external dependence, while consumption rates continue to decline. Since 1984, the final consumption rate in China has been declining[1], and especially after the Asian financial crisis, there has been a steep decline, from 65.8 percent in 1984 to 47.4 percent in 2010, with the residents consumption rate of 33.8 percent, while capital formation rate and the external dependency over the same period rose from 34.2 and 17.4 to 48.6 and 51 percent, respectively. Even after the implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand in 1998 and 2008, the declining trend in consumption rate has not been changed. This investment and export development path cannot be maintained for a long time, accumulated over the years. Overcapacity, resource and environmental pressures, trade friction and some “internal and external” economic problems need to be resolved.