اثر دیجیتالی شدن بر ایجاد و تخریب شغل
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Institutional background - a snapshot of the Swiss economy
3. Empirical investigation
4. Results
5. Conclusions and policy implications
Appendix A. Supplementary data
References
Abstract
With the process of digitalization now in full swing, many are wondering how the adoption of new technologies influences job creation and destruction. Much hinges upon the specific tasks that machines take on and how many new tasks are created through the adoption of new digital technologies. Some argue that most tasks that are at risk of automation are those performed by rather low- to medium-skilled employees, while most new tasks that emerge from the adoption of digital technologies complement high-skilled labor. We present evidence derived from representative survey data from Switzerland that is consistent with this view. Specifically, we find that increased investment in digitalization is associated with increased employment of high-skilled workers and reduced employment of low-skilled workers, with a slightly positive net effect. The main effects are almost entirely driven by firms that employ machine-based digital technologies, e.g. robots, 3D printing or the Internet of Things. We do not find any significant employment effects when non-machine-based digital technologies are considered, e.g. ERP, e-commerce or cooperation support systems.
Introduction
There is widespread consensus among both academics and practitioners that innovation is the main driver of productivity, economic growth and job creation. Whether this holds true with regard to innovations that fall under the umbrella of ‘digitalization’ is a subject of vigorous debate, though. This debate is particularly controversial when it comes to the impact of digitalization on job creation and destruction. Indeed, for more than a century, bookshelves have been filled with analyses on how technological development influences jobs. Many prominent academics have argued – and some still argue – that man and machine are in a race, which machines will eventually win, leading to mass unemployment (e.g. Leontief, 1952; Ford, 2015). Historical examples of jobs that were washed away by technological developments seem to confirm this view, e.g. stoker that were replaced by electrical engines. At the same time, it is not a controversial statement that many new jobs were created in the wake of technological developments of the past (e.g. Landes, 1969; Chandler, 1977; Mokyr, 1990). After all, consistent with Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction, the net impact on jobs seems to be positive (Mastrostefano and Pianta, 2009; Kogan et al., 2017).1 The crucial, yet unanswered, question is whether this time is different. One way to think about potential job creation and destruction conceptually is to differentiate between tasks that are regularly performed by human beings but could be performed equally well or more efficiently by machines, versus tasks that cannot be substituted by machine work, or new complementary tasks that are created because of machine adoption. Many politicians and employees feel challenged by the ongoing digital revolution because the new technologies behind it often seem to be direct substitutes for tasks that are regularly performed by human beings.