تصمیم گیری چند معیاره با توجه به ریسک
Abstract
۱٫ Introduction
۲٫ Background
۳٫ Methodology
۴٫ Numerical example
۵٫ Conclusions
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Research Data
References
Abstract
In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and costbenefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.
Introduction
In the last decade, the management of physical assets has emerged as a crucial business function for companies operating in asset intensive industries. Furthermore, the complex nature of modern engineered systems has led to the need for physical asset management as a discipline (Hastings 2015). Complex systems, composed of many interacting and interdependent components are increasing the likelihood of extreme, rare and disruptive events (Komljenovic, et al. 2016). As such, it comes as no surprise that the ISO 55000 Asset Management series of standards emphasize the need for risk-informed decisions (International Standards Organization 2014). Risk assessment in the asset management context requires the identification of what can go wrong (e.g. unexpected asset failures), characterization of the likelihood and consequence of such events, and comparison of the likelihood and consequence against risk tolerability criteria to determine risk treatment options (International Standards Organization 2018). Treatment options give rise to potential asset investments that must be prioritized while taking into consideration several factors (e.g. cost, return on investment, risk tolerability, etc.). In this work we present a framework and methodology for quantitative prioritization of risk-informed asset management projects using multi-criteria decision analysis. Several methodologies exist in the literature for multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), sometimes referred to as multicriteria decision aiding or multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). We use the acronym MCDM/A to consider both.