هدف گذاری فعالیت اقتصادی واقعی و تثبیت تورم در چارچوب کینزی
ترجمه نشده

هدف گذاری فعالیت اقتصادی واقعی و تثبیت تورم در چارچوب کینزی

عنوان فارسی مقاله: هدف گذاری اسمی تولید ناخالص داخلی، فعالیت اقتصادی واقعی و تثبیت تورم در یک چارچوب کینزی جدید
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: Nominal GDP targeting, real economic activity and inflation stabilization in a new Keynesian framework
مجله/کنفرانس: بررسی فصلنامه اقتصاد و امور مالی - The Quarterly Review Of Economics And Finance
رشته های تحصیلی مرتبط: اقتصاد
گرایش های تحصیلی مرتبط: توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، برنامه ریزی سیستم های اقتصادی، اقتصاد مالی، اقتصاد پولی
کلمات کلیدی فارسی: هدف گذاری اسمی تولید ناخالص داخلی، هدف گذاری تورم، قانون تیلور، تثبیت، نوسانات، شوک
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی: Nominal GDP targeting، Inflation targeting، Taylor rule، Stabilization، Fluctuations، Shocks
نوع نگارش مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی (Research Article)
نمایه: Scopus - Master Journals List
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2020.01.002
دانشگاه: Department of Economics, Room 222, Thatcher Hall, College of Business, University of Central Oklahoma, 100 N University Dr, Edmond, OK 73034, United States
ناشر: الزویر - Elsevier
نوع ارائه مقاله: ژورنال
نوع مقاله: ISI
سال انتشار مقاله: 2020
ایمپکت فاکتور: 1/195 در سال 2019
شاخص H_index: 44 در سال 2020
شاخص SJR: 0/486 در سال 2019
شناسه ISSN: 1062-9769
شاخص Quartile (چارک): Q2 در سال 2019
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی: PDF
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 11
وضعیت ترجمه: ترجمه نشده است
قیمت مقاله انگلیسی: رایگان
آیا این مقاله بیس است: بله
آیا این مقاله مدل مفهومی دارد: دارد
آیا این مقاله پرسشنامه دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله متغیر دارد: دارد
کد محصول: E14712
رفرنس: دارای رفرنس در داخل متن و انتهای مقاله
فهرست انگلیسی مطالب

Abstract


1- Introduction


2- The model


3- Policy regimes


4- The equilibrium


5- Parameterization:


6- Quantitative results


7- Welfare analysis


8- Robustness analysis


9- Conclusion


References

نمونه متن انگلیسی مقاله

Abstract


This paper examines a nominal GDP growth targeting (NGDP-GT) rule, two Taylor types of rules and a strict inflation targeting regime in a New Keynesian model with the assumption of a positive rate of trend inflation. The model adopts a trend total factor productivity (TFP) growth to compare monetary policies in both high and low growth environments. Policy rankings are affected by the level of trend growth, the level of partial indexation to inflation and different specifications of the Taylor rule. NGDP-GT either outperforms other regimes or is weakly dominated by a desirable policy. Specifically, from the stability perspective, NGDP-GT is preferred compared to a Taylor type of rule and a strictinflation targeting regime in stabilizing the economy. It reduces inflation volatility by 25% or more while performs almost as well in stabilizing output and consumption relative to the Taylor rule. It produces at least 27% less fluctuations in output and consumption, and is almost as well as inflation targeting in stabilizing inflation. From the welfare perspective, when the Taylor rule takes the simple form, inflation targeting is the least desirable framework and NGDP-GT is weakly dominated by the Taylor rule. The conclusions are not conditioning on the trend growth rate or the level of inflation indexation. However, if the Taylor rule takes the form that interest rate responds to deviations of inflation and output growth (TR-II), when a TFP shock hits the economy and trend growth rate A = 1, TR-II generates of the least welfare loss and NGDP-GT performs almost as well. When trend growth rate A =/ 1, NGDP-GT is the most desirable policy regime. When the economy is subject to a markup shock, and A ≥ 1 and (or) partial indexation to inflation = 1, TR-II dominates the other two regimes. For other cases, NGDP-GT is the desirable policy rule.


Introduction


Prior to the normalization ofthe federal funds rate,the past economic crisis and the nominal interest rate at the zero lower-bound (ZLB) revived economists’ interest in the targeting of nominal GDP (or nominal income) as an attractive monetary policy option. Before 2008, the Taylor rule had kept its prevalence of nearly two decades by virtue of being both relatively simple to compute and practically implementable by the Federal Reserve while having great effectiveness in preventing the recurrence of high inflation. As pointed out by Sumner (2014), if the Great Moderation had continued, there would be few reasons to abandon the Taylor rule. The current study is motivated by the limitations of the Taylor rule due to the narrow operation room to the ZLB in recent years and its congenital defects in requiring the measurement of real economic activity and core inflation, and by the discussion on nominal GDP targeting. Since 2016, the Federal Reserve has been gradually raising the federal funds rate with the expectation of restoring it to the normal range. However,the financial market has been well ahead ofthe data, pricing in downside risks such as slow global growth,trade negotiations and expected contractionary monetary policy, leading to dramatic volatility recently, which is consistent with Alan Greenspan’s opinion that traditional monetary policies are not critical at this stage. The current study is motivated by the non-implementability of the traditional monetary policy rules in the foreseeable future due to the ZLB,the normalization ofthe federal rates, and traditional monetary policy’s congenital defects in requiring the measurement of real economic activity and core inflation. Literature on NGDP targeting can be tracked back to the 1990’s. McCallum (1987), McCallum (1989), and Hall and Mankiw (1994) found that nominal GDP targeting rule provides policy makers operability and robustness due to its favorable performance across a range of models.

  • اشتراک گذاری در

دیدگاه خود را بنویسید:

تاکنون دیدگاهی برای این نوشته ارسال نشده است

هدف گذاری فعالیت اقتصادی واقعی و تثبیت تورم در چارچوب کینزی
نوشته های مرتبط
مقالات جدید
پیوندها