پیش بینی بازده سهام با قیمت نفت خام
Abstract
۱٫ Introduction
۲٫ Review of the literature
۳٫ Methodology
۴٫ Data and preliminary analyses
۵٫ Discussion of results
۶٫ Conclusion and implication of findings
Research Data
References
Abstract
The decision over asset holding is traditionally premised on the double-edge objective of returns maximization and risk minimization. While the class of assets held by a typical investor depends on his attitude towards risks, an optimal investment portfolio requires a strategic combination of alternative assets (commodities, T-bills, stocks etc). To this end, our paper analyzes the role of crude oil prices in predicting stock returns, in addition to the traditional factors, particularly the returns on risk-free assets (such as, T-bills) as enunciated by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). We also consider the possibility of nonlinearities in the nexus between crude oil prices and stock returns of nine major oil and gas companies that are currently listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange over the period of January 2014 to November 2019. Our results show significant in-sample predictability of stock returns using crude oil prices, thereby affirming our argument that oil price matters in the predictability of stock returns for some listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria. We also offer evidence for the role of asymmetries in the predictability of stock returns for the majority of the listed oil and gas companies in Nigeria. By implication, the increasing exposure of the earnings, vis-a-vis, � the share prices of some major oil and gas companies to negative changes in global oil prices suggests the need for diversification of their scope of operations.
Introduction
The Nigerian economy is largely oil dependent, making it highly sensitive to movements in global crude oil prices. Oil price volatility matters for the investment decisions of prospective investors in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, most especially. This in turn affects the profitability of firms and hence the values of their shares on the domestic stock market (see, for instance, Gupta, 2016 and Soyemi et al., 2017). In the words of Kayalar et al. (2016), changes in crude oil prices are believed to affect stock markets through the channel of expectations. Meanwhile, Basher and Sadorsky (2006) argued that the impact of falling oil prices on stock market differs from country to country depending on whether the country is an oil exporter or an oil importer. In an oil exporting country, an increase in oil prices improves the trade balance, leading to a higher current account surplus and an improving net foreign asset position. At the same time, a rise in oil prices tends to increase private disposable income in oil exporting countries. This in turn enhances corporate profitability, boosts domestic demand and push up stock prices, thereby causing exchange rate to appreciate. In oil importing countries, the process works broadly in reverse: trade deficits are offset by weaker growth and, overtime, real exchange rate depreciates and stock prices decline (Basher and Sadorsky, 2006). The extent to which stock prices are influenced by world oil price changes is explained by the theory of equity valuation, which defines the stock price as the sum of discounted values of expected future cash flows at different investment horizons (Jouini, 2013). Consequently, oil prices affect stock prices directly by impacting future cash flows or indirectly through an impact on the interest rate used to discount the future cash flows. In the absence of complete substitution effects between the factors of production, rising oil prices, for example, increases the cost of doing business, and for non-oil related companies, it reduces profits. Rising oil prices can also be passed on to consumers in form of higher prices, but this will reduce the demand for final goods and services and depress profits.