دانلود مقاله بازار بیت کوین و فعالیت رسانه های اجتماعی
چکیده
مقدمه
بررسی ادبیات
روش شناسی
نتایج
بحث و نتیجه گیری
مشارکت های نویسنده
تامین مالی
بیانیه هیئت بررسی نهادی
بیانیه رضایت آگاهانه
بیانیه در دسترس بودن داده ها
تضاد منافع
اختصارات
مراجع
Abstract
Introduction
Literature Review
Methodology
Results
Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
References
چکیده
این مطالعه به بررسی رابطه بین پویایی بازار بیت کوین و فعالیت کاربر در زیر ردیت r/cryptocurrency می پردازد. هدف این تحقیق درک چگونگی ارتباط فعالیت رسانه های اجتماعی با قیمت بیت کوین و حجم معاملات و بررسی احساسات و تمرکز موضوعی بحث های Reddit است. ما اطلاعات مربوط به قیمت بسته شدن بیت کوین و حجم معاملات را از ژانویه 2021 تا دسامبر 2022، در کنار محبوب ترین پست ها و نظرات از subreddit در همان دوره جمع آوری کردیم. تجزیه و تحلیل ما همبستگی های قابل توجهی را بین معیارهای بازار بیت کوین و فعالیت Reddit نشان داد، با بحث های کاربر که اغلب به تغییرات بازار واکنش نشان می دهند. علاوه بر این، فعالیت کاربر در Reddit ممکن است به طور غیرمستقیم بر بازار از طریق عوامل اجتماعی و اقتصادی گسترده‌تر تأثیر بگذارد. تجزیه و تحلیل احساسات نشان داد که نظرات مثبت در طول افزایش قیمت ها بیشتر بود، در حالی که نظرات منفی در طول رکود افزایش یافت. مدل‌سازی موضوع چهار موضوع اصلی بحث را شناسایی کرد که در طول زمان، به‌ویژه در طول افت بازار، متفاوت بودند. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که فعالیت رسانه‌های اجتماعی در Reddit می‌تواند بینش‌های ارزشمندی در مورد روند بازار و احساسات سرمایه‌گذار ارائه کند. به طور کلی، مطالعه ما نقش تأثیرگذار جوامع آنلاین را در شکل‌دهی به پویایی بازار ارزهای دیجیتال، ارائه ابزارهای بالقوه برای پیش‌بینی و تنظیم بازار، برجسته می‌کند.
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between Bitcoin market dynamics and user activity on the r/cryptocurrency subreddit. The purpose of this research is to understand how social media activity correlates with Bitcoin price and trading volume, and to explore the sentiment and topical focus of Reddit discussions. We collected data on Bitcoin’s closing price and trading volume from January 2021 to December 2022, alongside the most popular posts and comments from the subreddit during the same period. Our analysis revealed significant correlations between Bitcoin market metrics and Reddit activity, with user discussions often reacting to market changes. Additionally, user activity on Reddit may indirectly influence the market through broader social and economic factors. Sentiment analysis showed that positive comments were more prevalent during price surges, while negative comments increased during downturns. Topic modeling identified four main discussion themes, which varied over time, particularly during market dips. These findings suggest that social media activity on Reddit can provide valuable insights into market trends and investor sentiment. Overall, our study highlights the influential role of online communities in shaping cryptocurrency market dynamics, offering potential tools for market prediction and regulation.
Introduction
The rapid growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies have attracted significant attention from investors, researchers, and policymakers. Among these digital assets, Bitcoin (BTC) [1] stands out due to its market dominance and influence on the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Understanding the factors that drive Bitcoin’s price and trading volume is crucial for stakeholders across various sectors. One such factor is the sentiment and activity within online communities, where discussions and opinions about cryptocurrencies are actively shared.
Social media platforms and online forums play a vital role in shaping the market dynamics of cryptocurrencies [2]. These platforms provide real-time information, opinions, and sentiment that can influence investor behavior and market trends. Several studies have explored the relationship between social media activity and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the significance of sentiment analysis and user engagement in predicting price movements and trading volumes.
While previous studies have examined the relationship between social media sentiment and cryptocurrency markets, our research distinguishes itself by focusing on the specific community of r/cryptocurrency on Reddit. We leverage a combination of sentiment analysis and topic modeling on a comprehensive dataset of posts and comments, providing a detailed view of how online discussions evolve and correlate with Bitcoin market movements. By examining both sentiment and thematic content over time, our study offers nuanced insights into the interplay between social media activity and cryptocurrency market dynamics.
Results
4. Results
4.1. Bitcoin Market Data
Figure 1 illustrates the closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) over a two-year period, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2022. The data reveal significant volatility, characteristic of the cryptocurrency market. Notably, BTC reached an all-time high in November 2021, approaching USD 68,000, before undergoing a substantial correction throughout 2022. This decline reflects broader market trends, including macroeconomic factors and changes in investor sentiment. The closing price provides a critical foundation for understanding market dynamics and investor behavior during this period.