موردی از ترکیه در مورد تحلیل همجمعی پانل رابطه بین تجارت بین المللی و گردشگری
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Literature
3- Methodology
4- Findings
5- Discussion
References
Abstract
Tourism development has been examined from various aspects and studies examining relations between tourism and other sectors are increasing. This study tests the relationship between the incoming tourists and volumes of import and export of Turkey and 13 Silk Road countries, through Panel ARDL. The study is important since it is thought to be the first to check the relation between tourist flows and trade amongst the Silk Road countries. Findings point out that even though there are differences in short-term and long-term relations, tourist flows and international trade are related, which indicates that international trade is important for tourism development.
Introduction
The recent reign of neoliberal policies worldwide has popularized the policies to increase international trade. Therefore, activities facilitating trade and relations between trade and other economic activities are amongst the main agenda items for both academicians and decisionmakers (Kónya, 2006). According to World Trade Organization (WTO), export per capita has increased about 30 times over the last 50 years (Fischer & Gil-Alana, 2009). Moreover, the increase in international travels since 1950s has led tourism revenues to reach high sums as US $ 1.220 billion (United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], 2017). The sector is set to continue growing, and the number of international tourists is expected to reach 1.8 billion in 2030 (UNWTO, 2017) and revenues to reach US$ 2.1 trillion in 2050 (Coban & Ozcan, 2013). Tourism produces one-tenth of worldwide GDP and employment and is the third largest worldwide export sector after chemicals and fuels (UNWTO, 2018). Therefore, it would be logical to assume that there is a relationship between international tourism and trade of goods. International tourism, which is an on-site sale activity unlike traditional goods trade, is considered as export due to the foreign exchange inflow to the country (Brida, Cortes-Jimenez, & Pulina, 2016). It is also generally accepted that international tourists may cause international trade to increase since they can provide the transportation of goods from their own countries to destinations or from destinations to their homelands (Tsui & Fung, 2016). Given these, there has been an increasing interest in examining relationship between international trade and tourism. Researches are about whether there is a relationship between tourism and international trade and what is the direction and duration of the relation. Although relationships have been identified in empirical studies using different variables and in different counties and regions, there is no consensus on the direction and term of the relationship (Gwenhure & Odhiambo, 2017; Suresh & Tiwari, 2018). If it is determined that there is a systematic relationship between tourism and international trade, it can be an important step in terms of regulating international policies. Useful consequences can be set forth to determine the main success elements of foreign trade. In addition, identifying the existence and nature of the relationship between tourism and trade can steer the efforts to increase tourism demand. By this research, tourist arrivals from Silk Road countries (Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan) to Turkey and international trade of Turkey (import and export) with those countries were analyzed with Mean Group (MG) and panel cointegration methods. Behind the work lies the assumption that international trade will positively impact tourism development. This study contributes to the extant literature in three ways. First, the relationship between tourism and trade is examined amongst countries with different economic development. Secondly, it is probed for the countries with divergent economic relation volumes. Lastly, it provides empirical results from previously non-examined region, Silk Road.