رابطه معکوس بین تغییرات ناشی از امید به زندگی در نسبت وابستگی سالمندی
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رابطه معکوس بین تغییرات ناشی از امید به زندگی در نسبت وابستگی سالمندی

عنوان فارسی مقاله: ارتباط معکوس بین تغییرات ناشی از امید به زندگی در نسبت وابستگی سالمندی و نسبت وابستگی سالمندی مربوط به اینده
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: The inverse relationship between life expectancy-induced changes in the old-age dependency ratio and the prospective old-age dependency ratio
مجله/کنفرانس: زیست شناسی نظری جمعیت - Theoretical Population Biology
رشته های تحصیلی مرتبط: علوم اجتماعی، روانشناسی
گرایش های تحصیلی مرتبط: پژوهشگری اجتماعی، جامعه شناسی
کلمات کلیدی فارسی: سالخورده، نسبت وابستگی به سالخوردگی، نسبت وابستگی سالمندی مربوط به اینده، جدول عمر جمعیت، تغییر مرگ و میر، تراکم مرگ و میر
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی: Aging، Old-age dependency ratio، Prospective old-age dependency ratio، Life-table population، Mortality shift، Mortality compression
نوع نگارش مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی (Research Article)
نمایه: MedLine - Scopus - Master Journals List - JCR
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2018.10.001
دانشگاه: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
ناشر: الزویر - Elsevier
نوع ارائه مقاله: ژورنال
نوع مقاله: ISI
سال انتشار مقاله: 2019
ایمپکت فاکتور: 1/598 در سال 2019
شاخص H_index: 80 در سال 2020
شاخص SJR: 1/029 در سال 2019
شناسه ISSN: 0040-5809
شاخص Quartile (چارک): Q1 در سال 2019
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی: PDF
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 10
وضعیت ترجمه: ترجمه نشده است
قیمت مقاله انگلیسی: رایگان
آیا این مقاله بیس است: خیر
آیا این مقاله مدل مفهومی دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله پرسشنامه دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله متغیر دارد: دارد
کد محصول: E13995
رفرنس: دارای رفرنس در داخل متن و انتهای مقاله
فهرست انگلیسی مطالب

Abstract


1- Introduction


2- The mortality model


3- The analytic expression for the old age threshold


4- The analytic relationship between the OADR and the POADR under general mortality change


5- Empirical assessment


6- Conclusion


References

نمونه متن انگلیسی مقاله

Abstract


Unlike other biological populations, the human population is experiencing long-run increases in life expectancy. Those lead to changes in age compositions not typical for other biological populations. Sanderson and Scherbov (2015a) demonstrated that, in many countries in Europe, faster increases in life expectancy lead to faster population aging when measured using the old-age dependency ratio and to slower population aging when measured using the prospective old-age dependency ratio that employs a dynamic old-age threshold. We examine this finding analytically and with simulations. We use an analytic decomposition of changes in mortality schedules into shift and compression processes. We show that shifts and compressions of mortality schedules push the two old-age dependency ratios in opposite directions. Our formal results are supported by simulations that show a positive effect of a mortality shift on the old-age dependency ratio and a negative effect of it on the prospective old-age dependency ratio. The effects are of opposite sign for a mortality compression. Our formal and simulation results generalize observed European trends and suggest that the inverse relationship between life expectancy and prospective old-age dependency would be observed more generally.


Conclusion


The OADR assumes that the old age starts at some fixed age regardless of time or place. Nevertheless, in a world where life expectancy is increasing, where people are often healthier at given ages than they were in the past, where age-specific cognitive functioning is improving, where older people are now more educated than they were in the past, and where people in OECD countries will generally be facing higher normal pension ages, another measure of aging, consistent with these changes, seems appropriate. The POADR is such a measure. Population aging, viewed from the perspective of the POADR looks very different from the picture provided by the OADR. Sanderson and Scherbov (2015a) showed that faster increases in life expectancy lead to slower rates of population aging when measured by the percentage increase in the POADR, in contrast to the faster rates of population aging when measured by the percentage increase in the OADR. We show why those differences were observed and, indeed, that they were predictable given the sorts of shifts and compressions that have been observed. Here, we have shown that, in a wide variety of life table populations, annual changes in OADRs and POADRs move in opposite directions. Ediev’s 2013a shiftcompression model provides an analytic two-parameter specification of the age distribution of adult deaths. We used that model to provide analytic expressions for both the OADR and the POADR in terms of shift and compression parameters. The theoretical expressions that we obtained predicted that the observed negative relationship between annual changes in OADRs and POADRs is exactly what we should expect to see. We estimated the shift and compression parameters using data from the countries in the Human Morality Database. The data showed that the change in the POADR was around −0.38 times the change in the OADR. Our theoretical approximation predicted that it would be around −0.3 times the change in the OADR.

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