ارزیابی انتظارات (کاهش) لنگر تورم طولانی مدت خانوارها
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ارزیابی انتظارات (کاهش) لنگر تورم طولانی مدت خانوارها

عنوان فارسی مقاله: ارزیابی انتظارات (کاهش) لنگر تورم طولانی مدت خانوارها در ایالات متحده
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US
مجله/کنفرانس: مجله اقتصاد کلان - Journal Of Macroeconomics
رشته های تحصیلی مرتبط: اقتصاد
گرایش های تحصیلی مرتبط: اقتصادسنجی، اقتصاد مالی، اقتصاد پولی
کلمات کلیدی فارسی: انتظارات تورم، ادراکات تورم، سیاست پولی، عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی: Inflation expectations، Perceptions of inflation، Monetary policy، Economic policy uncertainty
نوع نگارش مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی (Research Article)
نمایه: Scopus - Master Journals List - JCR
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103183
دانشگاه: Department of Economics & Business Environment, Indian Institute of Management Raipur, Raipur, Chhattisgarh 493661, India
ناشر: الزویر - Elsevier
نوع ارائه مقاله: ژورنال
نوع مقاله: ISI
سال انتشار مقاله: 2020
ایمپکت فاکتور: 1/075 در سال 2019
شاخص H_index: 40 در سال 2020
شاخص SJR: 0/680 در سال 2019
شناسه ISSN: 0164-0704
شاخص Quartile (چارک): Q2 در سال 2019
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی: PDF
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 13
وضعیت ترجمه: ترجمه نشده است
قیمت مقاله انگلیسی: رایگان
آیا این مقاله بیس است: بله
آیا این مقاله مدل مفهومی دارد: دارد
آیا این مقاله پرسشنامه دارد: ندارد
آیا این مقاله متغیر دارد: دارد
کد محصول: E14473
رفرنس: دارای رفرنس در داخل متن و انتهای مقاله
فهرست انگلیسی مطالب

Abstract


1- Introduction


2- Households’ inflation expectations in the US


3- Empirical model


4- Results


5- Conclusion


References

نمونه متن انگلیسی مقاله

Abstract


Well-anchored inflation expectations play an important role in the achievement of price stability. The (de-)anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the US has been under debate since the sub-prime crisis. This paper assesses and explains the evolution of the degree of (de-)anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US during the period of 1990 to 2019, in a time-varying framework. We find the long-term inflation expectations to be de-anchored during the entire study period. The de-anchorage was greater in the first half of the 1990s. Subsequently, it has declined but has not yet anchored. An increase in inflation perception reduces the degree of de-anchorage in a (persistently) low-inflation perception period, whereas it causes a rise in the degree of de-anchorage when inflation perception is around its long-term average or is persistently high. Further, a rise in economic policy uncertainty also increases the de-anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations. This suggests that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) may find it beneficial to pay more attention to households’ inflation perception.


Introduction


Well-anchored long-term inflation expectations are very important for the successful conduct of monetary policy in an inflationtargeting economy. Central banks often adopt an explicit numeral inflation target, partly to anchor long-term inflation expectations. If the central bank is credible, the target inflation should anchor the long-term inflation expectations. Accordingly, the long-term inflation expectations are expected to be determined only by target inflation, not by actual inflation, news, and/or short-term inflation expectations. The (de-)anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the US, the Euro area, and the emerging economies has been under debate since the sub-prime crisis. The empirical results are mixed, ranging from perfect anchoring to severe de-anchoring. For instance, in the context of the US, several studies have found the long-term inflation expectations to be perfectly anchored (Blanchard, 2016; Buono and Formai, 2018; Nautz et al., 2019; Strohsal et al., 2016), whereas a few studies have shown them to be de-anchored (Kumar et al., 2015; Nautz and Strohsal, 2015). Similarly, in the context of the Euro area, Scharnagl and Stapf (2015) have found that the medium- to long-term inflation expectations are well anchored, whereas Cruijsen and Demertzis (2011) have determined that inflation expectations are less well-anchored. Further, de Mendonça (2018) has shown that the inflation expectations in seven inflation-targeting emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey) are not perfectly anchored.

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