ارزیابی انتظارات (کاهش) لنگر تورم طولانی مدت خانوارها
Abstract
1- Introduction
2- Households’ inflation expectations in the US
3- Empirical model
4- Results
5- Conclusion
References
Abstract
Well-anchored inflation expectations play an important role in the achievement of price stability. The (de-)anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the US has been under debate since the sub-prime crisis. This paper assesses and explains the evolution of the degree of (de-)anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US during the period of 1990 to 2019, in a time-varying framework. We find the long-term inflation expectations to be de-anchored during the entire study period. The de-anchorage was greater in the first half of the 1990s. Subsequently, it has declined but has not yet anchored. An increase in inflation perception reduces the degree of de-anchorage in a (persistently) low-inflation perception period, whereas it causes a rise in the degree of de-anchorage when inflation perception is around its long-term average or is persistently high. Further, a rise in economic policy uncertainty also increases the de-anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations. This suggests that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) may find it beneficial to pay more attention to households’ inflation perception.
Introduction
Well-anchored long-term inflation expectations are very important for the successful conduct of monetary policy in an inflationtargeting economy. Central banks often adopt an explicit numeral inflation target, partly to anchor long-term inflation expectations. If the central bank is credible, the target inflation should anchor the long-term inflation expectations. Accordingly, the long-term inflation expectations are expected to be determined only by target inflation, not by actual inflation, news, and/or short-term inflation expectations. The (de-)anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the US, the Euro area, and the emerging economies has been under debate since the sub-prime crisis. The empirical results are mixed, ranging from perfect anchoring to severe de-anchoring. For instance, in the context of the US, several studies have found the long-term inflation expectations to be perfectly anchored (Blanchard, 2016; Buono and Formai, 2018; Nautz et al., 2019; Strohsal et al., 2016), whereas a few studies have shown them to be de-anchored (Kumar et al., 2015; Nautz and Strohsal, 2015). Similarly, in the context of the Euro area, Scharnagl and Stapf (2015) have found that the medium- to long-term inflation expectations are well anchored, whereas Cruijsen and Demertzis (2011) have determined that inflation expectations are less well-anchored. Further, de Mendonça (2018) has shown that the inflation expectations in seven inflation-targeting emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey) are not perfectly anchored.