دانلود مقاله اثرات غیرخطی بدهی عمومی بر تورم، اندازه اقتصاد سایه
چکیده
مقدمه
طرح پژوهش
نتایج
نتیجه
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Research design
Results
Conclusion
References
چکیده
این مقاله به بررسی اثرات غیرخطی بدهی عمومی بر تورم می پردازد. با استفاده از نمونه ای از 22 اقتصاد نوظهور، نتایج ما شواهدی در مورد وجود اثرات آستانه بین تورم و بدهی عمومی ارائه می دهد. به طور خاص، ما متوجه می‌شویم که کشورهای نوظهور با اقتصاد سایه نسبتاً پایین می‌توانند افزایش بدهی عمومی را بدون هزینه‌های رفاهی اضافی که با تورم بالاتر همراه است، تحمل کنند. در مقابل، کشورهایی که اقتصاد سایه آنها از 24.3 درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی فراتر رفته است، با هزینه های کلان اقتصادی بیشتری از نظر تورم روبرو هستند. در نتیجه، آنها فضای کمتری برای مانور در برخورد با اثرات همه‌گیری COVID-19 دارند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
This paper explores the nonlinear effects of public debt on inflation. Using a sample of 22 emerging economies, our results provide evidence regarding the existence of threshold effects between inflation and public debt. Specifically, we find that emerging countries with a relatively low shadow economy can accommodate increases in public debt without the additional welfare costs that are associated with higher inflation. In contrast, those countries where the shadow economy exceeds 24.3% of GDP face greater macroeconomic costs in terms of inflation. Consequently, they have less room for manoeuvre when dealing with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Introduction
The impact of public debt on macroeconomic variables, such as economic growth, investment, consumption or interest rates, has been largely debated in the literature. However, little is known about the effect of public debt on inflation, which can significantly influence macroeconomic management. In general, it is acknowledged that high and volatile inflation is detrimental to economic growth and imposes important welfare costs (Baharumshah et al., 2016). Due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have additional requirements for resources to finance health spending, provide support for troubled agents and invest in the economic recovery. A large part of these resources is expected to come from increasing public debt, especially in the short term. According to IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update from June 2020, “global public debt is expected to reach an all-time high, exceeding 101 percent of GDP in 2020–21, a surge of 19 percentage points from a year ago”.
Conclusion
This paper analyses the nonlinear effects of public debt on inflation using the shadow economy as a transition variable across 22 emerging economies. We reveal the existence of a nonlinear smooth transition across the distribution of inflation, depending on the level of the shadow economy. The threshold level of regime switching regarding the shadow economy share to GDP is endogenously found to be 24.3%. Below this level, emerging countries can accommodate the increase in public debt without the welfare costs that are generated by higher inflation, whereas above this threshold, inflation increases as public debt becomes higher. These results point to less room for manoeuvre for policy makers in emerging countries with a high level of the shadow economy in response to the crisis that has been generated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflation
Shadow Economy
Government debt
GDP per capita (log)
Lagged inflation (∆% CPI))
Unemployment rate (%)
Net foreign direct inv. (%GDP)
Trade openness (%GDP)
Financial Openness
Gov. Effectiveness
Oil Price(USD)
Crises Dummy
Exch. Rate Dummy