دانلود مقاله پاسخ نامتقارن تورم CPI به نرخ ارز در اقتصاد وابسته به نفت
چکیده
مقدمه
مرور مطالعات پیشین مختصر
داده ها و روش شناسی
تحلیل تجربی
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Brief literature review
Data and methodology
Empirical analysis
Conclusion
References
چکیده
این سؤال که آیا قیمت‌های داخلی به نرخ ارز رسمی یا حرکت موازی ارز پاسخ می‌دهند، یک موضوع تحقیقاتی کلیدی است، به‌ویژه در کشور در حال توسعه وابسته به نفت مانند نیجریه با افزایش فشارهای مالی و بازار موازی پر جنب و جوش. همچنین از منظر قدرت پولی، دانستن اینکه آیا قیمت ها به طور متقارن و/یا نامتقارن به حرکت نرخ ارز رسمی و موازی واکنش نشان می دهند، ضروری است. در نتیجه، این مطالعه واکنش قیمت‌های داخلی به حرکت نرخ ارز رسمی و موازی را برای دوره 1995 Q1-2019 Q1 با شین و همکاران بررسی می‌کند. رویکرد غیرخطی ARDL نتایج برای قیمت‌هایی که به طور متقارن به نرخ‌های موازی نسبت به نرخ رسمی واکنش نشان می‌دهند، حمایت می‌کند، به‌ویژه در دوره‌های پرمیوم نرخ ارز. با این حال، قیمت ها تنها به کاهش ارزش و افزایش نرخ ارز رسمی در نیجریه واکنش متفاوتی نشان می دهند. در نتیجه، اگر قصد عایق‌سازی قیمت‌های داخلی از فشارهای مالی باشد، دولت باید از برخی سطوح ریاضت مالی و یکسان سازی احتمالی نرخ ارز در زمانی که حق بیمه بزرگ می‌شود، اطمینان حاصل کند. همچنین، بانک مرکزی نیجریه باید روابط نامتقارن احتمالی را در تصمیمات خود برای اطمینان از ثبات قیمت ها در نظر بگیرد تا اثر سیاست پولی را مخدوش نکند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
The question of whether domestic prices respond to either official exchange rate or parallel exchange rate movement is a key research issue especially in an oil-dependent developing country like Nigeria with rising fiscal pressures and a vibrant parallel market. Also from the monetary authority perspective, it is imperative to know if prices respond symmetrically and/or asymmetrically to both official and parallel exchange rates movement. Consequently, this study examines the response of domestic prices to both official and parallel exchange rates movement for the period 1995Q1-2019Q1 with the Shin et al. (In: Horrace WC, Sickles RC (eds) Festchrift in Honour of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, pp 281–414, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach. The results provide support for prices responding symmetrically to parallel rates than the official rate especially in periods of large exchange rate premium. However, prices only respond differently to depreciation and appreciation of the official exchange rate in Nigeria. Consequently, the government needs to ensure some levels of fiscal austerity and possible exchange rate unification when the premium gets large if the intention is to insulate domestic prices from fiscal pressures. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria needs to take cognizance of possible asymmetric relationship in their decisions to ensure price stability so as not to distort monetary policy effect.
Introduction
A good understanding of the dynamics of infationary pressures is imperative to ensuring not only proper policy direction but also the efectiveness of monetary policy stance in an oil-dependent developing economy. In the literature, two prominent approaches dominate in explaining this dynamics-the Phillip Curve and the quantity theory (Duravall et al. 2013). Now, most studies in Sub-Sahara Africa pay more attention to the use of the quantity theory with focus on the excess money supply as the driver of infation due to large informal sector and alarming unemployment rate (see, Duravall et al. 2013). However, the role of foreign prices and exchange rate as a nominal anchor is recently considered in the literature in modeling infationary dynamics (See, Olubosye and Oyaromade 2008; Delatte et. al. 2012; Duravall et al. 2013; Baharumshah et al. 2017). Thus, providing an understanding of the response of domestic prices (both general and food) to the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate is critical to the monetary policy decision especially when the primary objective of the Central Bank is price stability in an oil-dependent developing economy (Delatte et al. 2012). This is the main thrust of the study on Nigeria.
Conclusion
The intention of government to maintain the role of the ofcial exchange rate as a nominal anchor so as to isolate domestic prices from fscal pressures through the parallel exchange rate may break down especially when the premium gets larger. This poses the question of whether domestic prices respond to either ofcial exchange rate or parallel exchange rate movement in an oil-dependent developing country like Nigeria with rising fscal pressures and a vibrant parallel market. Thus, this study examines the response of domestic prices to the ofcial and parallel exchange rates’ movements in Nigeria. Using both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models selected based on generalto-specifc approach and controlling for periods of large exchange rate premium in the estimation, interesting fndings are established for policy implications.
Unit root without break point
Unit root with break point
Dependent variable: CPI infation
Dependent variable: food infation
LOG(Y)
LOG(R)
C
R-squared Adjusted
R-squared
S.E. of regression
Long-run variance