دانلود مقاله سیاست پولی در اقتصاد وابسته به نفت
چکیده
مقدمه
مدل
تخمین
نتایج
استراتژی های سیاست پولی جایگزین
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Model
Estimation
Results
Alternative monetary policy strategies
Conclusion
References
چکیده
سیاست پولی روسیه به دلیل خروج سرمایه خصوصی بزرگ و مستمر و کاهش شدید قیمت نفت در سال 2014 با چالش مواجه شده است. در برابر این پس زمینه، این کار یک مدل کوچک اقتصاد باز برای روسیه را تخمین می زند که بخش قیمت نفت را نشان می دهد و با مشخصه ای از بازار ارز گسترش می یابد تا به درستی مداخلات سیستماتیک بانک مرکزی را محاسبه کند. ما متوجه شدیم که شوک‌های قیمت نفت و جریان‌های سرمایه خصوصی به‌طور قابل‌توجهی بر متغیرهای داخلی مانند تورم و تولید تأثیر می‌گذارند. شبیه‌سازی‌ها برای استراتژی واقعی برآورد شده و رژیم‌های جایگزین نشان می‌دهند که آسیب‌پذیری اقتصاد روسیه در برابر شوک‌های خارجی می‌تواند به طور قابل ملاحظه‌ای با اتخاذ نوعی هدف‌گذاری تورم کاهش یابد. استراتژی‌ها برای هدف قرار دادن نرخ ارز اسمی یا قیمت روبل نفت پایین‌تر هستند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014. Both contributed to significant depreciation pressures on the ruble and led the central bank to give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this work estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation and output. Simulations for the estimated actual strategy and alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of inflation targeting. Strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil prove to be inferior.
Introduction
After Russian GDP growth already slowed down in 2013, increased political uncertainty and sanctions related to the annexation of the Crimean peninsula have amplified capital outflows and the economic downturn in 2014. In addition, the sharp fall in oil prices in the second half of the year reduced capital inflows and output growth even further. In order to prevent a sharp depreciation of the ruble and an increase in domestic inflation as a result thereof, the central bank raised its key policy rate in six steps by 1150 basis points during 2014. In addition, it directly intervened in the foreign exchange (FX) market by selling parts of its currency reserves until it officially allowed the ruble to freely float. Whereas a strong devaluation could not have been prevented and the exchange rate management has been eventually given up, raised interest rates might have posed an additional obstacle for the already weak economy. Against this background, this work aims at analyzing and assessing the monetary policy of the Russian central bank in the presence of simultaneously occurring shocks to the oil price and capital outflows. To correctly account for specific features of the Russian economy, the oil sector as well as a mirco-founded foreign exchange market are introduced into a small open economy DSGE model estimated for Russia. Simulations are conducted for different alternative policy strategies that are subsequently assessed on the basis of the effects they have on particular variables of interest.
Conclusion
Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble. In order to mitigate the impact on its currency, the central bank repeatedly raised its key policy rate and directly intervened on the foreign exchange market. However, its policy measures could not prevent a strong depreciation of the ruble, while raised interest rates might have posed an additional obstacle for the already weak economy. This work estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables, such as inflation, output and the exchange rate. Simulations of the model for the estimated actual strategy and five alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can be substantially lowered by adopting some form of inflation targeting strategy. Foreign exchange intervention-based policy strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil, on the other hand, prove inferior to the policy in place, in particular because of the lacking ability of conducting independent monetary policy via the interest rate.