دانلود مقاله اشتراکات در گردش نرخ تورم در میان کشورهای آفریقا
چکیده
مقدمه
چارچوب نظری
پیش زمینه
داده ها
روش شناسی، نتایج، و بحث
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Theoretical Framework
Background
Data
Methodology, Results, and Discussion
Conclusions
References
چکیده
در این مطالعه، میزان مشابه‌تر شدن حرکات نرخ تورم برای کشورهای جامعه شرق آفریقا (EAC) را بررسی می‌کنیم که موضوع مهمی برای هدف EAC برای ایجاد یک ارز مشترک است. برای پنج کشور EAC (به استثنای سودان جنوبی)، متوجه شدیم که تغییرات نرخ تورم معمولاً بین سال‌های 1995 و 2018 مشابه‌تر شده است. کاهش همبستگی سه عضو بزرگ EAC با بقیه EAC (از هر یک از دیدگاه‌های آنها). ) پس از سال 2013 نگران کننده یک اتحادیه پولی بدون مشکل است.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the degree to which inflation-rate movements for countries in the East African Community (EAC) have become more similar, which is an important issue for the EAC’s goal of creating a common currency. For the five EAC countries (excluding South Sudan), we find that comovements in inflation rates generally became more similar between 1995 and 2018. A decrease in the correlations of the three largest EAC members with the rest of the EAC (from each of their perspectives) after 2013 is concerning for a smoothly running monetary union.
Introduction
Since November 2013, the East African Community (EAC) has been involved in a project of creating a monetary union by 2024. Whether such a union will be fruitful depends on the degree of benefits arising from greater economic interaction that a common currency could promote and the costs arising from the different countries not being able to apply monetary policy independently for optimal support of their economies (see, for example, Mundell 1961). These costs are typically higher when countries within the monetary union face asymmetric economic shocks. Greater asymmetry in economic shocks among member countries may be reflected by lower correlation in inflation rates among those countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether correlations in the inflation rates among the EAC countries have become more similar, especially since 2013.
Conclusions
In this study, we have explored how inflation-rate levels and inflation-rate movements for EAC countries have developed over time. Through a similarity index, we have shown that for most country pairs (8 of 10) among the five EAC countries, changes in inflation between consecutive months became more similar between 1995 and 2018.