دانلود مقاله دوره ای بودن سیاست مالی در کشورهای اتحادیه اروپا
چکیده
مقدمه
مطالعات و فرضیه های مرتبط
داده ها
استراتژی تجربی
نتایج
مقاوم بودن
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Related literature and hypotheses
Data
Empirical strategy
Results
Robustness
Conclusions
References
چکیده
با استفاده از داده‌های بی‌درنگ، بررسی می‌کنیم که آیا سیاست مالی ضد یا دوره‌ای در هیئتی متشکل از 27 کشور عضو اتحادیه اروپا (EU) در دوره 2000-2015 بوده است. ما همچنین بررسی می کنیم که آیا قوانین مالی و کارایی دولت واکنش چرخه ای سیاست مالی را بهبود می بخشد یا خیر. نتایج ما نشان می‌دهد که حتی اگر برنامه‌های مالی در کشورهای اتحادیه اروپا یک موضع غیر چرخه‌ای دارند، نتایج بودجه‌ای دوره‌ای هستند. کارآیی دولت و قوانین مالی به نظر می رسد که چرخه های مالی را کاهش می دهد. تجزیه و تحلیل بیشتر همچنین نشان می دهد که به نظر می رسد سیاست مالی در کشورهای غیر منطقه یورو و در زمان رونق اقتصادی بیشتر چرخه ای است.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
Using real-time data, we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter- or procyclical in a panel of 27 European Union (EU) member states over the period 2000–2015. We also investigate whether fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical reaction of fiscal policy. Our results suggest that even though fiscal plans in EU countries have an acyclical stance, budgetary outcomes are procyclical. Government efficiency and fiscal rules seem to reduce fiscal procyclicality. Further analysis also reveals that fiscal policy seems to be more procyclical in non-euro area countries and in times of economic prosperity.
Introduction
As central banks seem to run out of ammunition to stimulate the economy, fiscal policy has come to the fore. Early public finance theories already highlighted the importance of fiscal policy as an instrument for macroeconomic stabilization. For instance, according to Musgrave (1959), fiscal policy should be countercyclical. That is, it should be contractionary in good times and expansionary in bad times to dampen business cycle fluctuations. More recent theoretical work based on a New-Keynesian DSGE model with sticky prices by Christiano et al. (2011) also suggests that optimal fiscal policy should be countercyclical. These authors show that countercyclical fiscal policy is even more effective when the monetary policy interest rate is at the effective lower bound. Recent empirical research by Bonam et al. (2020) provides empirical support for this view.
Conclusions
We have studied the cyclical stance of discretionary fiscal policy in 27 EU member states using a real-time data approach. The results indicate that fiscal plans have an acyclical stance. However, when the fiscal plans are implemented the cyclical stance worsens, while budgetary outcomes end up procyclical. The results also suggest that institutional factors – i.e., fiscal rules and government efficiency – enhance the cyclical response of fiscal policy. When institutional factors are weak, fiscal policy is procyclical in all its various stages, but government efficiency and fiscal rules improve cyclical behaviour. In addition, strong institutional frameworks result in acyclical fiscal policies, although fiscal rules and government efficiency do not seem to complement each other.
Fiscal policy is procyclical in EU countries
Fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical stance of fiscal policy
Fiscal rules and government efficiency are complements in their effect on the cyclical stance of fiscal policy