دانلود مقاله اهمیت عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی در کیفیت گزارشگری مالی
چکیده
مقدمه
ملاحظات نظری و توسعه فرضیه ها
داده ها و روش ها
یافته های تجربی
بررسی های استحکام
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Theoretical considerations and hypotheses development
Data and methods
Empirical fndings
Robustness checks
Conclusion
References
چکیده
ما تأثیر عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی (EPU) را بر کیفیت گزارشگری مالی شرکت‌های ایالات متحده طی سال‌های 1999-2015 بررسی می‌کنیم. ما از مدیریت سود مبتنی بر اقلام تعهدی به عنوان نماینده ای برای کیفیت گزارشگری مالی و شاخص بیکر و همکاران استفاده می کنیم. (Quart J Econ 131:1539-1636، 2016) به عنوان یک معیار EPU برای نشان دادن اینکه آنها ارتباط مثبت و معناداری را نشان می دهند. ما همچنین با استفاده از سه ابزار قطبی‌سازی سیاسی برای EPU، یک اثر علی پیدا می‌کنیم. در یک تحلیل مقطعی، ما بیشتر نشان می‌دهیم که رابطه مثبت بین EPU و مدیریت سود برای شرکت‌هایی که در صنایع حساس سیاسی، برای شرکت‌هایی که در مشکلات مالی بیشتر هستند و در دوره‌های رکودی تقویت می‌شود. ما همچنین شواهدی ارائه می‌کنیم که افزایش محدودیت‌های مالی، رابطه مثبت بین EPU و مدیریت سود را تسهیل می‌کند. این یافته ها برای استفاده از معیارهای جایگزین عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی و زمانی که مدیریت سود واقعی را به عنوان یک متغیر وابسته به کار می گیریم، قوی هستند. این نتایج نشان می‌دهد که مدیران قصد دارند در زمانی که EPU بالا است، موقعیت مالی بهبود یافته شرکت را به افراد خارجی ارائه دهند. یافته‌های ما نشان می‌دهد که سرمایه‌گذاران، تحلیل‌گران، اعتباردهندگان و تنظیم‌کننده‌ها باید مراقب کیفیت گزارش‌دهی مالی شرکت‌ها در دوره‌های عدم اطمینان بالای سیاست‌های اقتصادی باشند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
We examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the financial reporting quality of US firms over 1999–2015. We use accruals-based earnings management as a proxy for financial reporting quality and the index of Baker et al. (Quart J Econ 131:1539–1636, 2016) as an EPU measure to show that they exhibit a positive and significant association. We also find a causal effect by employing three political polarization instruments for EPU. In a cross-sectional analysis, we further show that the positive relationship between EPU and earnings management strengthens for firms operating in politically sensitive industries, for firms in more financial distress, and during recessionary periods. We also provide evidence that increased financial constraints facilitate the positive relationship between EPU and earnings management. These findings are robust to the use of alternative measures of economic policy uncertainty and when we employ real earnings management as a dependent variable. These results indicate that managers aim to provide outsiders with an improved financial position of the company when EPU is high. Our findings suggest that investors, analysts, creditors, and regulators should be wary of firms’ financial reporting quality in periods of high economic policy uncertainty.
Introduction
The recent political developments around the world have led to a sharp rise in economic policy uncertainty. Events such as the Brexit referendum result and the trade war between the US and China demonstrate the rising global economic policy uncertainty. The US, in particular, has experienced a turbulent period of economic policy uncertainty since 2000 also because of the structure of its political system that frequently leads to fragmentation. The US government shutdowns in October 2013 and in December 2018 regarding the federal budget are just two examples of events that give rise to economic policy uncertainty (The New York Times 2019).
Conclusion
This paper fnds that economic policy uncertainty is a signifcant determinant of US frms’ fnancial reporting quality as proxied by their earnings management behavior. In particular, we show that economic policy uncertainty exerts a positive and signifcant efect on abnormal accruals. Using cross-sectional tests, we also provide evidence of three factors that enhance the relationship mentioned above. We show that the positive association of economic policy uncertainty with upwards earnings manipulation is more potent for frms that operate in politically sensitive industries and for frms that display more fnancial distress. We also fnd the positive efect of economic policy uncertainty on earnings manipulation to be more evident when the economic conditions are unfavorable (i.e., during recessionary periods). Additionally, we provide evidence that an important economic mechanism (channel) that facilitates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and upwards earnings management is the increase in frms’ fnancial constraints.
H1 There is a positive relationship between economic policy uncertainty and earnings management
H2 The positive relationship between economic policy uncertainty and earnings management would be more pronounced for frms belonging to politically sensitive industries
H3 The positive relationship between economic policy uncertainty and earnings management would be more pronounced for fnancially distressed frms