دانلود مقاله جریان های نقدی وام مسکن و اشتغال
چکیده
مقدمه
داده ها
طرح پژوهش
ابزارسازی برای شوک های جریان نقدی محله
نتایج
تجزیه پاسخ های استخدامی
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Data
Research design
Instrumenting for neighborhood cash-flow shocks
Results
Decomposition of employment responses
Conclusion
References
چکیده
این مقاله تأثیر کانال جریان نقدی سیاست پولی بر اشتغال را با ترکیب مجموعه داده‌های خرد جدید با پوشش تقریباً جهانی کمیت می‌کند. هنگامی که نرخ بهره کاهش می یابد، خانوارهای وام مسکن سهم مهمی از جریان نقدی اضافی را در اقتصاد محلی خود صرف می کنند و تقاضای نیروی کار محلی را افزایش می دهند. به طور کلی، کاهش پرداخت های وام مسکن به میزان 1000 پوند برای هر خانوار منجر به افزایش 0.5 درصدی در رشد اشتغال غیرقابل تجارت محلی در طی سه سال می شود که تقریباً به طور کامل توسط بخش رستوران هدایت می شود. اثرات رشد اشتغال از طریق حاشیه فشرده برای مؤسسات کوچک، نرخ مرگ و میر کمتر برای متوسط و نرخ تولد بالاتر برای بزرگترین فروشگاه ها عمل می کند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
This paper quantifies the impact of the cash-flow channel of monetary policy on employment by combining novel micro datasets with near-universal coverage. When interest rates fall, mortgaged households spend an important share of the extra cash-flow in their local economy, increasing local labor demand. Overall, a reduction in mortgage payments of £1,000 per household leads to a 0.5 percentage point increase in locally non-tradable employment growth over three years, almost entirely driven by the restaurant sector. Employment-growth effects operate through the intensive margin for small establishments, lower death rates for the mid-sized and higher birth rates for the largest outlets.
Introduction
Monetary policy operates through a number of direct channels, but little is understood about the heterogeneity of its transmission through different industries. One channel that has recently attracted attention operates through the shock to household disposable income that results from the interaction of policy interest rates and mortgage debt. This cash-flow effect has been considered by policymakers for some time (e.g., Bernanke (2007)) but it is often difficult to quantify how it might directly affect employment via increases in local consumption and labor demand. I add to our understanding of this topic by combining multiple datasets with near-universal coverage to investigate the importance of the cash-flow effect on employment and firm heterogeneity.
Conclusion
I find that the monetary easing by the Bank of England in the fall of 2008 had a significant and immediate cash-flow impact on people with an adjustable-rate mortgages. In areas where the overall cash-flow shock was especially large, it supported consumption, including consumption for locally provided goods and services, thereby supporting employment in these sectors. Although monetary policy works through multiple channels, I find that the cash-flow channel offset some important adverse shocks during the Great Recession.