دانلود مقاله چالش اقتصاد بازارهای نوظهور
خلاصه
1. مقدمه
2 مشاهدات انتقال نرخ بهره از کشور مرکز
3 برآورد بر روی عوامل تعیین کننده منحنی بازده
4 نکته پایانی
ضمیمه 1 توضیحات داده ها و گروه های کشوری
فهرست کشور
پیوست 2: شاخص سیاست کلان احتیاطی
پیوست 3: برآورد جریان خالص سرمایه و سیاست های کلان احتیاطی، 1999 - 2016
منابع
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Observations of the Interest Rate Pass‑through from the Center Country
3 Estimation on the Determinants of the Yield Curve
4 Concluding Remarks
Appendix 1 Data Descriptions and Country Groups
Country List
Appedix 2: Macroprudential Policy Index
Appendix 3: Estimates of Net Capital Inflow and Macroprudential Policies, 1999 – 2016
References
چکیده
در دنیای مالی جهانی شده، مدیریت نرخ بهره بلندمدت از طریق نرخ های بهره کوتاه مدت می تواند دشوار باشد. در این مقاله، بررسی می‌کنیم که آیا جریان خالص سرمایه به تضعیف پیوند بین نرخ‌های بهره کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت کمک می‌کند یا خیر. ما متوجه شدیم که اقتصادهایی که از نظر مالی بازتر هستند یا آنهایی که بازارهای مالی توسعه یافته‌تری دارند، رابطه منفی بیشتری بین جریان خالص سرمایه و انتقال نرخ بهره کوتاه‌مدت به بلندمدت دارند. همچنین بررسی می‌کنیم که آیا سیاست‌های احتیاطی کلان می‌توانند بر میزان انتقال نرخ بهره تأثیر بگذارند یا خیر و متوجه می‌شویم که ابزارهای احتیاطی کلان سرمایه مبتنی بر سرمایه در حفظ کنترل انتقال نرخ بهره مؤثر هستند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
In a financially globalized world, managing long-term interest rates through short-term interest rates can be difficult. In this paper, we examine whether net capital inflows contribute to weakening the link between short- and long-term interest rates. We find that more financially open economies or those with more developed financial markets tend to have a greater negative relationship between net capital inflows and short- to long-term interest rate pass-through. We also examine whether macroprudential policies can affect the extent of interest rate pass-through and find that broad-based capital macroprudential tools are effective in retaining control of interest rate pass-through.
Introduction
Recently, many researchers have argued that fnancial globalization has made domestic fnancial markets more vulnerable to developments in the major economies, namely the United States, the European Union, and lately China. Rey (2013) argues that in the fnancially globalized world, countries are vulnerable to the “global fnancial cycle” of capital fows, asset prices, and credit growth. In such an environment, non-major economies are subject to the center countries’ monetary policy unless the former decides to curtail capital mobility
Figure 1 makes it clear that the volume of capital fows to emerging market economies (EMGs)2 tends to rise when risk appetite, measured by the reversed VIX index, is higher3 . When “risk is on,” investors’ risk appetite would rise and capital would fow to where the yields are higher, which was the case for EMGs when industrialized countries (IDCs) implemented extremely low interest rate policies in the late 2000s through the mid-2010s. When “risk is of” or when the interest rates are expected to rise in IDCs, capital would leave EMGs for IDC’s markets. Thus, capital fows to EMGs only passively react to the conditions of the major economies.
Concluding Remarks
It has been increasingly argued that fnancial globalization has been playing a bigger role in determining domestic asset prices and interest rates. In such an environment, even with greater monetary autonomy, monetary authorities may not be able to keep controls of fnancial markets and the real economy as Rey (2013) argues. In fact, in recent years, the correlation of long-term interest rates between EMGs, especially those in East Asia, and the United States has been rising while the correlation of short-term rates does not show such a trend. In other words, Rey’s (2013) view of global fnancial cycles afecting domestic monetary policy – in which policymakers face a dilemma between monetary autonomy and free capital mobility – may be applicable to long-term interest rates, though not to the short-term interest rates.
We examine whether receiving net capital infows can contribute to weakening the link between the short- and long-term interest rates, i.e., the interest rate passthrough. Our estimation results suggest that a country receiving more net capital infows tends to have a weaker interest rate pass-through. When we instrument net capital infows with its potential determinants to control for potential endogeneity, we fnd that both the magnitude and the statistical signifcance of the estimate for net capital infows increase.