دانلود مقاله انتخاب ساختار سرمایه وابسته و اقتصاد کلان
چکیده
مقدمه
مرور مطالعات پیشین و مشارکت
روش شناسی
داده ها
نتایج تجربی
نتیجه گیری
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Literature review and contribution
Methodology
Data
Empirical results
Conclusions
References
چکیده
این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که انتخاب‌های ساختار سرمایه شرکت‌های آمریکایی در طول زمان به یکدیگر وابسته هستند. ما یک رویکرد تخمین دو مرحله ای را دنبال می کنیم. اول، با استفاده از بخش بزرگی از شرکت‌ها، میانگین انتخاب‌های ساختار سرمایه را سال به سال تخمین می‌زنیم، به عنوان مثال، میانگین درصد سرمایه‌گذاری جدید شرکت که از طریق بدهی تضمین می‌شود، ترکیب مدت آن، و درصد سهام جدید نشان‌داده‌شده توسط انباشته شده است. درآمد دوم، این سری‌های زمانی در یک مدل خودرگرسیون بردار تقویت‌شده فاکتوری گنجانده شده‌اند که در آن سه عامل نشان‌دهنده فعالیت اقتصادی واقعی، شرایط مورد انتظار تامین مالی آینده و قیمت‌ها گنجانده شده‌اند. ما وابستگی متقابل بین تصمیمات ساختار سرمایه بهینه و تأثیر اعمال شده توسط شرایط کلان اقتصاد بر این تصمیمات را آزمایش می کنیم. نتایج نشان می دهد که یک نظم سلسله مراتبی وجود دارد که در آن شرکت ها تصمیمات ساختار سرمایه را اتخاذ می کنند. آنها ابتدا در مورد سهم بدهی از کل بودجه جدیدی که استخدام خواهند کرد تصمیم می گیرند. مشروط بر این، آنها در مورد مدت بدهی خود و در مورد سیاست حفظ درآمد خود تصمیم می گیرند. مهم ترین عامل، عوامل کلان اقتصادی برای تصمیم گیری در مورد ساختار سرمایه هستند.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
This study shows that capital structure choices of US corporations are interdependent across time. We follow a two-step estimation approach. First, using a large cross-section of firms we estimate year-by-year average capital structure choices, i.e., the average firm’s percentage of new funding that is secured through debt, its term composition, and the percentage of new equity represented by retained earnings. Second, these time series are included in a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive model in which three factors representing real economic activity, expected future funding conditions, and prices, are included. We test for the interdependence between optimal capital structure decisions and for the influence exerted by macroeconomic conditions on these decisions. Results show there is a hierarchical order in which firms make capital structure decisions. They first decide on the share of debt out of total new funding they will hire. Conditional on this they decide on the term of their debt and on their earnings retention policy. Of outmost importance, macroeconomic factors are key for making capital structure decisions.
Introduction
Capital structure refers to the proportion of debt and equity employed by a firm to fund its operations and finance its assets. There are tradeoffs firms must make when they decide whether to use debt or equity to finance operations, and managers will balance the two to find the optimal capital structure, i.e., the capital structure that results in the lowest weighted average cost of capital for the firm.
Understanding how firms fund their operations is a major topic in modern corporate finance. In practice, corporations raise funds from a variety of sources, e.g., issuing shares, contracting long- or short-term debt, and retaining earnings. An important question that has not been given sufficient attention in the literature is whether a firm’s capital structure decisions are interdependent and whether they are significantly influenced by the macroeconomic environment. In fact, empirical studies in corporate finance routinely examine firms’ financial policy decisions in isolation. For instance, decisions on how much short-term debt to issue as a proportion of total debt are assumed to be independent of the decision on the firm’s debt-to-capital ratio. This assumption that is frequently made in the literature, however, contrasts with the fact that in practice firms’ financing decisions are related by accounting identities. Changes in one control variable imply the adjustment of other control variables. Additionally, optimal capital structure decisions may depend on macroeconomic conditions. Access to banking credit, for instance, depends on the monetary policy stance and on the willingness of banks to extend loans to firms.
Conclusions
This paper studies the interdependence between aggregate firms’ capital structure decisions and the influence that macroeconomic factors exert on these decisions. We design a two-step empirical strategy combining a classical microeconometric approach based on cash flow constraints with a novel macroeconometric model. In the first step year-by-year regressions are performed to estimate the debt-to-equity ratio, the proportion of short-term debt, and the percentage of new share issuance for the average US firm for the period comprising between 1963 and 2018. In the second step we include the time series obtained in the first step into a FAVAR model in which three factors representing real economic activity, expected future funding conditions, and prices, are also included. Factors are estimated using a large dataset comprising 248 macroeconomic variables. The three factors used in our empirical model can be associated with real economic activity, expected future funding conditions, and prices. By imposing natural contemporaneous exogeneity restrictions on the FAVAR model, we study both the interdependence between optimal capital structure decisions and the influence exerted by macroeconomic conditions on these decisions.