دانلود مقاله تاثیرات غیرخطی بیکاری ناشی از مالیات تورم
چکیده
مقدمه
ارتباط با مطالعات پیشین
شواهد تجربی
مدل
تعادل
تنظیم
درک مکانیسم ها
نتایج کمی
هزینه رفاهی ناشی از تورم
نتیجه
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Relationship to literature
Empirical evidence
Model
Equilibrium
Calibration
Understanding the mechanisms
Quantitative results
Welfare cost of inflation
Conclusion
References
چکیده
تورم بلندمدت اثرات غیرخطی و وابسته به دولت بر بیکاری، تولید و رفاه دارد. ما این را با استفاده از یک مدل جستجوی پولی استاندارد با دو شوک - بهره‌وری و پولی - و اصطکاک در بازارهای کار و کالا نشان می‌دهیم. تورم مازاد حاصل از مسابقه کارگر-شرکت را کاهش می‌دهد و به نوبه خود آن را نسبت به شوک‌های بهره‌وری و افزایش بیشتر تورم حساس‌تر می‌کند. ما مدل را برای مطابقت با جنبه‌های کلیدی بازار کار ایالات متحده و داده‌های پولی کالیبره می‌کنیم. مدل کالیبره شده با تعدادی از همبستگی های تجربی مطابقت دارد که ما آنها را با استفاده از داده های تابلویی از OECD مستند می کنیم: (1) یک رابطه بلندمدت مثبت بین تورم پیش بینی شده و بیکاری وجود دارد. (2) همچنین یک همبستگی مثبت بین تورم پیش بینی شده و نوسانات بیکاری وجود دارد. (3) رابطه بلندمدت تورم و بیکاری زمانی قوی تر است که بیکاری بیشتر باشد. مکانیسم کلیدی که مدل از طریق آن این نتایج را ایجاد می کند، اثر منفی تورم بر تولید اندازه گیری شده به ازای هر کارگر است، که به همین ترتیب با داده های بین کشوری سازگار است. در نهایت، نشان می‌دهیم که هزینه رفاهی تورم در سطح تورم غیرخطی است و با وجود عدم قطعیت کل تقویت می‌شود.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
Long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. We show this using a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in both labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker–firm match, in turn making it more sensitive to both productivity shocks and further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match key aspects of the US labor market and monetary data. The calibrated model is consistent with a number of empirical correlations, which we document using panel data from the OECD: (1) there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment; (2) there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility; (3) the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is stronger when unemployment is higher. The key mechanism through which the model generates these results is the negative effect of inflation on measured output per worker, which is likewise consistent with cross-country data. Finally, we show that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate uncertainty.
Introduction
By acting as a tax on cash-intensive activity, long-run inflation leads to reduced output per worker, and, in the presence of labor market frictions, increased unemployment. This result is a robust prediction of the monetary search literature that explicitly models both goods and labor market frictions, such as Berentsen et al. (2011), as well as much of the literature preceding it that models money in reduced form, e.g. Cooley and Hansen (1989) and Lucas (2000). However, research on the effects of anticipated inflation has focused predominantly on its effect on average outcomes, largely abstracting from whether or how it affects the business cycle. In this paper, we argue that long-run inflation has significant effects on short-run unemployment volatility; more generally, the nonlinear and state-dependent effects of inflation should be taken into account when evaluating its effects on employment, output and welfare. We motivate this empirically, using cross-country data. We then show the importance and sources of nonlinearities quantitatively, using a standard monetary search framework with goods and labor market frictions.
Conclusion
In this paper we have argued that there is an important interaction between the inflation tax and business cycles. Such interaction arises naturally in a standard monetary search framework incorporating both labor market frictions and a role for money as a medium of exchange. The analysis illustrates that such interaction is potentially more important at high levels of inflation. We have also shown quantitatively that the small-surplus logic driving unemployment dynamics in the DMP model continues to be the dominant force here, even in the presence of confounding effects from goods–labor market interactions.