دانلود مقاله اثر رشد تورم در آفریقای مرکزی
چکیده
مقدمه
مروری بر مطالعات
رویکرد روش شناختی
نتایج
بحث در مورد نتایج
نتیجه
منابع
Abstract
Introduction
Literature Review
Methodological Approach
Results
Discussion of Results
Conclusion
References
چکیده
با وجود ادبیات رو به رشد در مورد عوامل تعیین کننده تورم از یک سو و تأثیر تورم بر رشد اقتصادی از سوی دیگر، اطلاعات کمی در مورد نقش ناامنی در این تحلیل ها به ویژه در کشورهای آفریقای مرکزی وجود دارد. هدف این مقاله کمک به درک سایر جنبه های نادیده گرفته شده تورم با تجزیه و تحلیل منشاء و اثرات آن بر اقتصاد از طریق نقش وضعیت امنیتی است. استفاده از سیستم GMM در پانل کشورهای آفریقای مرکزی طی دوره 2011-2017 نشان می دهد که به غیر از منابع سنتی (عرضه پول، رشد اقتصادی و رانت نفت)، ناامنی نیز یکی از منشأهای تورم است. علاوه بر این، تورم باعث رشد اقتصادی می شود در حالی که ناامنی مانع آن می شود. در نهایت، نتایج همچنین نشان می دهد که همزیستی تورم و ناامنی به طور قابل توجهی ظرفیت تولید اقتصادهای زیر منطقه را محدود می کند. بنابراین، حل تعارض‌های مختلف کنونی (داخلی و مرزی) و پیش‌بینی درگیری‌های احتمالی آینده، احتمالاً کنترل سطح تورم و همچنین حذف این محدودیت را که ظرفیت تولید اقتصادهای آفریقای مرکزی را محدود می‌کند، خواهد کرد.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
Despite the growing literature on the determinants of infation on the one hand and the efect of infation on economic growth on the other hand, little is known about the role of insecurity in these analyses, particularly in the Central African countries. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of other neglected aspects of infation by analyzing both its origins and its efects on the economy through the role of the security situation. The use of the system GMM on a panel of Central African countries during the period 2011–2017 reveals that, apart from traditional sources (money supply, economic growth, and oil rent), insecurity is also one of the origins of infation. Moreover, infation promotes economic growth while insecurity hinders it. Finally, the results also show that the coexistence of infation and insecurity signifcantly constrains the production capacity of the economies of the subregion. Thus, the resolution of the various present conficts (internal and border) and the anticipation of possible future ones will make it probably to control the level of infation as well as to eliminate this constraint which limits the production capacity of the economies of Central Africa.
Introduction
A work on the efects of infation on economic growth might at frst seem uninteresting and less relevant. In fact, many studies have already clarifed this relationship (Arawatari et al., 2018; Fischer, 1983; Ibarra & Trupkin, 2016; Sarel, 1996). Accordingly, the general price level afects economic activity. Furthermore, recent work concerning the relationship between infation and economic growth has focused on showing its nonlinearity. In this way, the efects of the infation on economic activity are not linear and will even depend on the infation rate. Therefore, it is up to monetary authorities to decide the optimal infation rate compatible with the stimulation of economic growth. In the analysis of the relationship between infation and economic growth, many recent works search for this threshold at both the national and regional context (Nubukpo, 2007; López-Villavicencio and Mignon, 2011; Eggoh & Khan, 2014; Ndoricimpa, 2017; Makiliwè & Leleng, 2018).
Conclusion
This article aimed to verify whether the security situation infuences the relationship between infation and economic growth in Central Africa. More specifcally, it investigated the insecurity as a source of infation on the one hand, and on the other hand, it assessed the efect of infation combined with insecurity on economic growth in Central African countries.
Hypothesis 1 The infation is mainly infuenced by the economic growth, the level of insecurity, the previous rate of infation, the money supply, the oil rent, and the budget defcit.
Hypothesis 2 Ceteris paribus, infation can stimulate economic growth in the Central African countries.
Hypothesis 3 The interaction between infation and insecurity hampers economic growth ceteris paribus.