مقاله انگلیسی تاثیر کووید-19 بر زنجیره های ارزش جهانی
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS, COVID-19, AND INDIRECT IMPACTS
MULTIREGIONAL I-O ANALYSIS AND WIOD
SCENARIOS: NONESSENTIAL GOODS DECLINE AND THE INCREASE OF HEALTH-RELATED EXPENDITURES
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Abstract
Public health measures enacted to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have dampened economic activity by shuttering businesses that provide ‘nonessential’ goods and services. Not surprisingly, these actions directly impacted demand for nonessential goods and services, but the full impact of this shock on the broader economy will depend on the nature and strength of value chains. In a world where production chains are increasingly fragmented, a shock in one industry (or a group of industries) in one country will affect other domestic industries as well as international trade, leading to impacts on production in other countries. We employ the World Input–Output Database to depict the interdependencies among both industries and countries, which provides a full representation of global value chains. By assuming a homogeneous impact on demand for nonessential goods and services around the world, we demonstrate asymmetric effects on production by industry and international trade, leading to asymmetric relative impacts on national economies. Our results indicate that if demand for nonessential goods and services decreases by 50%, the global gross domestic product will decline by 23%, leading to relative impacts that are larger in China, Indonesia, and some European countries. Also international trade declines by almost 30%, largely due to a reduction in economic activity associated with the production of raw materials and certain types of manufacturing. This work highlights the relevancy of going beyond measuring the direct effects of COVID-19 and provides insights into how international trade linkages will induce broader economic impacts across the globe.
INTRODUCTION
In January 2020, the World Health Organization acknowledged the existence of a novel coronavirus (later labeled SARS-CoV-2) and by March had declared the associated novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) a pandemic. Concerns about the infection rate and severity of COVID-19 led national and local governments around the world to enact restrictive public health measures to mitigate its spread. The various public health measures imposed significantly affected both the supply and demand sides of the economy. Forced and voluntary business closures significantly affected the supply of goods and services in many industries. Employee absences due to illness or quarantine and the implementation of physical distancing measures within the workplace have also altered production within firms that have remained operational. The impacts were severe. In the case of the USA, after experiencing a 50-year low in unemployment levels in February of 2020 (3.5%, 5.8 million people unemployed), over 16.5 million individuals were unemployed by 4 April 2020 (approximately a 15% unemployment rate), just 6 weeks/months after the first pandemic-related shutdowns within this country.