دانلود مقاله اثرات کلان اقتصادی تورم با روند مثبت
چکیده
مقدمه
مدل
تجزیه و تحلیل واکنش لحظه ای
پازل نرخ ارز واقعی
نتیجه گیری
منابع
ABSTRACT
Introduction
Model
Impulse Response Analyses
Real Exchange Rate Puzzles
Conclusion
References
چکیده
ادبیات اقتصاد باز نیوکینزی موجود، این فرض را ساده‌تر می‌کند که تورم روندی وجود ندارد. در این مقاله، مدل استاندارد اقتصاد باز را برای محاسبه روند مثبت تورم مجدداً فرموله می‌کنیم. سپس از این مدل برای درک اثرات شوک‌های اقتصاد کلان در یک اقتصاد باز کوچک، زمانی که روند تورم مثبت است، استفاده می‌کنیم. یافته اصلی ما این است که اجازه دادن به روند تورم به طور قابل توجهی بر پویایی مدل از طریق پویایی نرخ ارز واقعی به جای شیب منحنی فیلیپس کینزی جدید تأثیر می گذارد. به طور خاص، روند بالاتر تورم باعث واکنش نسبتاً پایدارتر نرخ ارز واقعی به شوک‌ها می‌شود. ادغام بیشتر روند تورم در یک اقتصاد باز ما را قادر می سازد تا در مورد برابری قدرت خرید و معماهای بیش از حد تاخیری بحث کنیم.
توجه! این متن ترجمه ماشینی بوده و توسط مترجمین ای ترجمه، ترجمه نشده است.
Abstract
The existing New Keynesian open economy literature tends to make the simplifying assumption that there is no trend inflation. In this paper, we reformulate the standard open economy model to account for positive trend inflation. We then employ the model to understand the effects of macroeconomic shocks in a small open economy when trend inflation is positive. Our main finding is that allowing for trend inflation significantly affects the dynamics of the model through real exchange rate dynamics rather than the slope of the New Keynesian Philips Curve. Specifically, higher trend inflation induces modestly more persistent real exchange rates’ responses to the shocks. Further incorporation of trend inflation in an open economy enables us to discuss the Purchasing Power Parity and Delayed Overshooting Puzzles.
Introduction
Most of the popular New Keynesian models make a simplifying assumption and presume that there is no inflation in the steady state. However, even during the Great Moderation, average inflation rates in developed economies have been around 2.5%. Also, the central banks target around 2% inflation rate in those economies. It can thus be claimed that zero-trend inflation assumption may make models biased. Starting with King and Wolman (1996), and Ascari (2000), several authors relax the zero-trend inflation assumption, allow for positive trend inflation in their models, and study its effects on macroeconomic dynamics.
Conclusion
We develop an alternative version of a small open economy model based on Gali and Monacelli (2005) with positive trend inflation. Gali and Monacelli (2005)’s model assumes that trend inflation is zero. However, this is a counterfactual assumption mainly for two reasons. First, the average inflation rates for developed countries in recent decades are well above zero. Second, the central banks do not target zero inflation rate. As a policy, higher inflation targeting has been a priority on the agenda of central banks, economists and policy-makers since the ZLB incident observed in the post-Global Financial Crisis in 2008–9. There have been debates about the effectiveness of higher inflation-targeting policy in economic environments of low interest rates, deflation, and stagnation. Various studies analyse different aspects of this policy in terms of welfare and indeterminacy. Predictably, results change according to the assumptions, specifications, and estimation methods of the models used.